Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:30:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CA 0xcac9…b4bb crypto 87 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$150 (-15%) realized −$154 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate42%36W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$180
14 days−$2
30 days−$179
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$92
other 28% −$70
crypto 18% −$12
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -31.2% -37.8% 25% 25% -42.6%
≤30d 86 -10.9% -19.4% 42% 34% -26.1%
≤90d 86 -10.9% -19.4% 42% 34% -26.1%
all 86 -10.9% -19.4% 42% 34% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 34% -26.1%
10% -27.1% 31% -33.2%
15% -34.1% 27% -39.6%
20% -40.6% 22% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$154
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses36 / 50
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)86 / 87
History coverage23d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 46¢ $38 $42 +$4 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$13 -25%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$1 -5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16 +$36 +226%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $203 −$203 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -62%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$51 +101%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -90%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$52 +102%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -73%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$57 +372%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$19 +375%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 +$25 +83%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $30 +$33 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $15 +$17 +114%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $31 +$34 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $12 +$19 +158%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -76%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $42 −$29 -70%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $6 −$6 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -98%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $2 +$2 +113%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -98%
Canada vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -88%
Will Bulgaria vs. Montenegro end in a draw? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +2%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 31 $13 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 31 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 31 $8 −$4 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 31 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 31 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 31 $9 −$9 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $38 24m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 22¢ $38 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 12¢ $15 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $16 28h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $14 32h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $25 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 50¢ $203 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $25 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $3 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 5d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $102 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $1 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes $3 7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $72 7d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 7d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $15 7d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $24 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.64 · official $41.64 (match) · 169 history records