Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:48:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
CA 0xcab9…baf6 sports 151 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,076 (+7%) realized +$3,076 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate75%114W / 37L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$309per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$263est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$662
7 days+$386
14 days+$549
30 days+$2,974
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$1,442
other 23% +$1,529
world 0% −$30
politics 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +1.3% -8.3% 80% 26% -8.2%
≤30d 143 +10.5% -0.0% 78% 20% -3.7%
≤90d 150 +9.4% -1.0% 76% 20% -3.8%
all 151 +8.9% -1.4% 75% 20% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 20% -3.8%
10% -10.9% 9% -13.0%
15% -19.5% 5% -21.4%
20% -27.4% 3% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$53 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.5 per $1 lost it wins $2.5
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,076
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses114 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$263
Open positions0
Markets (closed)151 / 151
History coverage96d
Avg bet$309
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 151 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $410 +$3 +1%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $601 +$1 +0%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $799 +$25 +3%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $400 +$7 +2%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $199 +$40 +20%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $488 +$9 +2%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $2,307 +$256 +11%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $9 $0 -3%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $35 +$13 +37%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $397 +$3 +1%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 20 $626 +$299 +48%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $33 +$5 +14%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $401 +$8 +2%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $400 +$4 +1%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $422 −$135 -32%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $7 +$1 +9%
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Jun 19 $1,082 +$349 +32%
Spread: Canada (-4.5) Jun 19 $1,201 +$19 +2%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 19 $390 +$30 +8%
Jonathan David: 2+ goals Jun 18 $1,121 +$8 +1%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $400 +$64 +16%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $31 −$9 -31%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $400 +$94 +23%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1,602 +$25 +2%
Valencia vs. Barcelona Jun 18 $550 +$10 +2%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1,143 +$136 +12%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 17 $682 +$7 +1%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 17 $76 $0 -0%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $357 +$18 +5%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $125 −$108 -86%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $404 +$12 +3%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $165 −$34 -20%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $400 +$16 +4%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $2,644 +$242 +9%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $98 +$16 +16%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $792 −$82 -10%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 16 $427 +$32 +8%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $400 +$8 +2%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1,192 −$1,192 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $401 +$7 +2%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $840 +$100 +12%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $271 +$141 +52%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $801 +$20 +2%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $400 +$12 +3%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $400 +$12 +3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $400 −$106 -26%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $32 +$4 +14%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $401 +$4 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $401 +$4 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $400 +$8 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $414 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $422 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $2 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $178 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 98¢ $151 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $18 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $99 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $83 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $200 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 98¢ $49 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $185 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $2 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $396 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $6 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $236 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $200 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $200 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $200 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 87¢ $198 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $408 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $200 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $200 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 98¢ $10 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $22 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $99 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $99 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 94¢ $5 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 94¢ $5 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 94¢ $10 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 82¢ $109 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1029 history records