Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:18:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xcab8…6802 other 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 520d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-1%) realized −$21 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate59%38W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$16
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$1
crypto 18% −$1
sports 16% −$9
other 11% −$36
politics 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -9.2% -17.8% 62% 50% -26.0%
≤30d 10 +5.2% -4.8% 70% 50% -15.3%
≤90d 20 -1.6% -11.0% 65% 40% -9.8%
all 64 +0.8% -8.8% 59% 30% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 30% -10.8%
10% -17.5% 25% -19.3%
15% -25.5% 23% -27.1%
20% -32.8% 19% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

520d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses38 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)64 / 76
History coverage520d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 45¢ 40¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland Jun 08 $1 +$1 +124%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 08 $106 +$2 +2%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 13 $1 +$2 +172%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 11 $447 +$2 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 25 $95 +$3 +3%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Mar 25 $5 +$3 +59%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 18 $92 +$5 +5%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? Mar 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Mar 02 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 26? Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on February 25? Feb 25 $107 $0 +0%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-25? Feb 25 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-24? Feb 25 $10 +$4 +39%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-24? Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA Feb 24 $32 +$5 +14%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 24 $122 +$2 +2%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-02-22? Feb 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Men's Quarterfinals - Finland vs. Switzerland Feb 18 $11 +$6 +52%
Men's Quarterfinals - USA vs. Sweden Feb 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Slovakia win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter O Feb 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Men's Quarterfinals - Slovakia vs. Germany Feb 18 $65 +$1 +1%
Men's Quarterfinals - Canada vs. Czechia Feb 18 $70 −$13 -19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 17? Feb 18 $140 $0 +0%
Men's Group B - Finland vs. Italy Feb 17 $133 +$6 +4%
Men's Group B - Sweden vs. Slovakia Feb 14 $1 +$1 +54%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 14 $133 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on February 9? Feb 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? Feb 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Valencia CF vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 Feb 09 $4 +$2 +54%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-08? Feb 09 $5 +$3 +67%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Feb 08 $8 $0 +0%
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale? Jan 13 $8 +$1 +13%
Will Montenegro win on 2025-11-14? Nov 22 $6 +$2 +28%
Will Finland win on 2025-11-14? Nov 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in October? Nov 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? Jun 21 $6 −$5 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $30 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 6d
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland BUY Finland 44¢ $1 17d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 10¢ $1 33d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $106 38d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 38d
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 38d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 63d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $100 64d
Will Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 64d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 64d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $105 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.98 · official $82.98 (match) · 147 history records