Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:12:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xcab6…8869 world 78 markets active 0h ago coverage 374d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate28%22W / 56L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$2
14 days+$8
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$8
other 28% −$1
politics 20% +$1
sports 11% $0
economics 4% $0
crypto 3% −$1
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.3% -9.2% 22% 11% -9.1%
≤30d 21 +0.1% -9.4% 24% 10% -8.8%
≤90d 65 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 3% -9.2%
all 78 -0.1% -9.6% 28% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 3% -9.3%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

374d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses22 / 56
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage374d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $50 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $21 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $81 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $34 −$4 -12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $24 +$1 +3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $44 +$6 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $36 +$4 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $39 +$1 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $68 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $38 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $34 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $63 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $3 $0 -12%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $78 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $15 −$1 -5%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $2 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $3 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $2 $0 -7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $2 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 -11%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $43 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $123 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $39 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $114 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 09 $42 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 07 $2 $0 -4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $85 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $45 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $7 17m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $42 17m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $4 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $46 2h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $21 6h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $7 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $38 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $45 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $36 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $36 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $50 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $13 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $10 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $5 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $14 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $11 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $24 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 279 history records