Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CA 0xcab2…651c weather 277 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$29 (+2%) realized +$38 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate22%60W / 212L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$21
14 days−$21
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 63% +$26
other 22% −$52
crypto 12% +$24
sports 4% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -6.3% -15.2% 14% 14% -22.6%
≤30d 24 -3.7% -12.9% 25% 21% -13.8%
≤90d 272 -13.5% -21.7% 22% 18% -8.5%
all 272 -13.5% -21.7% 22% 18% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 18% -8.5%
10% -29.2% 16% -17.3%
15% -36.0% 15% -25.3%
20% -42.3% 11% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×3.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized+$38
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses60 / 212
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)272 / 277
History coverage69d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 272 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $72 −$38 -53%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 15 $1 +$15 +1469%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 $0 -24%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $22 +$6 +28%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 25 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 25 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 20 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 15 $26 +$11 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 9 May 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma May 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C or higher on May 7 May 07 $1 $0 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May May 07 $1 +$1 +84%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ma May 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C or higher on May 7? May 07 $1 $0 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 6? May 06 $1 $0 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C or higher on May 6? May 06 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma May 06 $1 +$1 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May May 06 $1 +$1 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 6? May 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 5? May 06 $1 +$1 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C or higher on May 6? May 06 $1 $0 +49%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma May 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C or higher on May 6? May 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 5? May 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 5? May 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 5? May 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on May 6? May 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ma May 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May May 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma May 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on May 2? May 01 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $44 58m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 26h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 36h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $34 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $72 43h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 3d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 3 Türkiye? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 3 Türkiye? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 0 Switzerland? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $26 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 78¢ $22 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.02 · official $135.02 (match) · 634 history records