Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:56:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xcab2…b26d crypto 860 markets active 6d ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$31 (-1%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate83%711W / 149L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day33.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$19
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -3.7% -12.8% 57% 57% -11.7%
≤30d 629 -1.9% -11.2% 82% 39% -10.8%
≤90d 860 -1.6% -11.0% 83% 31% -10.7%
all 860 -1.6% -11.0% 83% 31% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 31% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 13% -19.3%
15% -27.3% 6% -27.1%
20% -34.4% 4% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses711 / 149
Open positions0
Markets (closed)860 / 860
History coverage40d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day33.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 860 Trades
no open positions (72 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$7 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1707 history records