Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xcab1…7dfa crypto 987 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d only
✗ bot/MM pace (248 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$148 (-1%) realized −$125 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate87%900W / 132L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day247.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,085now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$495
7 days−$875
14 days−$639
30 days−$639
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$144
sports 24% +$11
weather 10% +$2
other 2% +$2
finance 1% +$1
world 1% +$1
tech 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (248 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 633 -15.0% -23.1% 84% 2% -16.7%
≤30d 1032 -8.5% -17.2% 87% 17% -12.9%
≤90d 1032 -8.5% -17.2% 87% 17% -12.9%
all 1032 -8.5% -17.2% 87% 17% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover247.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 17% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 0% -21.3%
15% -32.4% 0% -28.9%
20% -39.0% 0% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1,085
Realized−$125
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses900 / 132
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions38
Markets (closed)1032 / 987
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day247.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 1032 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 17? No 100¢ 99¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 17? No 100¢ 99¢ $60 $59 −$0 (-0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Fukuda vs. Nakagawa: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
ITF Taipei: Eri Shimizu vs Nagi Hanatani Eri Shimizu 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Fukuda vs. Nakagawa: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng Tiana Tian Deng 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 17? No 99¢ 98¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Nishino vs. Sidorova: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Kawamura vs. Arakawa: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Over 99¢ 50¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-50%)
Will "Hit The Wall - Gracie Abrams" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will "Billie Jean - Michael Jackson" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 88°F or higher on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 118 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng BUY Tiana Tian Deng 99¢ $50 3m
Kawamura vs. Arakawa: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 99¢ $50 13m
Nishino vs. Sidorova: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 99¢ $35 21m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $18 28m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 35m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $23 36m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 49m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $8 49m
ITF Taipei: Eri Shimizu vs Nagi Hanatani BUY Eri Shimizu 99¢ $50 50m
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $60 53m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $60 54m
ITF Sapporo: Ying Zhang vs Riko Kikawada BUY Ying Zhang 99¢ $1 1h
Fukuda vs. Nakagawa: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 99¢ $50 1h
Nugroho vs. Ren: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 99¢ $45 1h
Kim vs. Bouzige: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 99¢ $50 1h
Fukuda vs. Nakagawa: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 99¢ $50 1h
Kim vs. Bouzige: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 99¢ $50 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 99¢ $19 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 99¢ $31 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $60 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers winning after 5 innings? BUY No 99¢ $50 2h
Lee vs. Naklo: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 99¢ $50 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 99¢ $50 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 100¢ $10 2h
Ogura vs. Saitoh: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 99¢ $50 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 100¢ $39 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 100¢ $0 2h
Justin Wrobleski: Strikeouts O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $6 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,085.00 · official $1,084.04 (match) · 3500 history records