Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:31:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CA 0xcaae…1586 crypto 87 markets active 17h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$117 (+10%) realized +$117 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate53%46W / 40L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$23
14 days+$84
30 days+$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$105
crypto 6% $0
other 5% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +5.6% -4.5% 51% 46% -4.5%
≤30d 86 +4.1% -5.8% 53% 48% -0.7%
≤90d 86 +4.1% -5.8% 53% 48% -0.7%
all 86 +4.1% -5.8% 53% 48% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 48% -0.7%
10% -14.8% 42% -10.2%
15% -23.1% 37% -18.9%
20% -30.6% 28% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$117
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses46 / 40
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)86 / 87
History coverage16d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 86 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +250%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +249%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 +$24 +234%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bilibili Gaming qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 13 $10 +$4 +40%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $86 +$12 +14%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $150 +$11 +7%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 -26%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +106%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +43%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $5 +$5 +91%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +172%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -65%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 16h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 16h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $2 39h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 39h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 39h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 39h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 99¢ $34 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Top Esports $0 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 31¢ $10 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $10 3d
Will Bilibili Gaming win LPL 2026 Split 2? SELL Yes 65¢ $11 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $10 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-1 BUY 54¢ $5 3d
Will Bilibili Gaming qualify to MSI 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 98¢ $97 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 77¢ $16 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 88¢ $70 3d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 100¢ $161 3d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 61¢ $7 3d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 95¢ $100 3d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 39¢ $1 3d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 89¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 168 history records