Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:19:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CA 0xcaad…255c crypto 793 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (203 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,412 (+1%) realized +$2,407 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate92%767W / 64L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$489per market
Trades / day202.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$305now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$674
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (203 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 272 -13.8% -22.0% 83% 2% -24.2%
≤30d 831 -4.6% -13.6% 92% 2% -12.7%
≤90d 831 -4.6% -13.6% 92% 2% -12.7%
all 831 -4.6% -13.6% 92% 2% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover202.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 2% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 0% -21.1%
15% -29.5% 0% -28.7%
20% -36.4% 0% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$600) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$409 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$305
Realized+$2,407
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses767 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)831 / 793
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$489
Trades / day202.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 831 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Up 97¢ 98¢ $300 $305 +$5 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $600 −$600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $600 −$600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $600 −$600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $600 −$600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $600 −$600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $600 −$600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $216 −$216 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $600 −$600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $600 −$600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $600 −$600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $199 −$199 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $600 −$600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $600 −$600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $600 −$600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $283 −$283 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $230 −$230 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $300 +$16 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $300 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $301 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $302 +$36 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $300 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $301 +$18 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $301 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $301 +$18 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $300 +$12 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $301 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $18 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $9 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $19 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $54 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $23 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $19 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $9 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $147 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $300 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $301 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $300 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $188 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $300 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $301 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $301 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $304.63 · official $292.26 · 3500 history records