Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:11:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CA
0xcaab…24dd
other · 179 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$93,531 +18%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$40,208 · open +$7,998
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$364,485
Realized+$40,208
Unrealized+$7,998
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses65 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions126
Markets (closed)78 / 179
History coverage26d
Avg bet$2,901
Trades / day129.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 126 History 78 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8,543
7 days+$17,022
14 days+$30,948
30 days+$40,208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New pandemic in 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $35,061 $35,799 +$738 (+2%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $26,093 $26,410 +$316 (+1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $19,586 $19,890 +$304 (+2%)
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $15,828 $16,021 +$193 (+1%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $14,659 $15,315 +$656 (+4%)
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? No 96¢ 99¢ $14,534 $14,990 +$456 (+3%)
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 100¢ $11,952 $12,140 +$187 (+2%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $10,956 $11,130 +$174 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 76¢ 85¢ $8,001 $9,001 +$1,000 (+12%)
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? No 94¢ 95¢ $8,167 $8,228 +$62 (+1%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 90¢ 92¢ $7,075 $7,218 +$143 (+2%)
Will Meta acquire TikTok? No 97¢ 99¢ $6,627 $6,796 +$169 (+3%)
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? No 96¢ 97¢ $6,643 $6,729 +$86 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $5,914 $6,027 +$113 (+2%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 89¢ 90¢ $5,847 $5,965 +$119 (+2%)
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the June Meeting? No 98¢ 100¢ $5,863 $5,962 +$99 (+2%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $5,750 $5,928 +$178 (+3%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $5,763 $5,852 +$89 (+2%)
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $5,704 $5,793 +$89 (+2%)
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $4,981 $5,147 +$166 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 93¢ $5,029 $5,090 +$61 (+1%)
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 99¢ 98¢ $5,101 $5,057 −$44 (-1%)
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 96¢ 95¢ $4,740 $4,686 −$54 (-1%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $4,585 $4,537 −$48 (-1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? No 48¢ 86¢ $2,372 $4,225 +$1,853 (+78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $501 +$30 +6%
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026? Jun 13 $890 +$20 +2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jun 12 $4,495 +$44 +1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on Jun 12 $1,903 +$2 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $492 +$8 +2%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $1,998 +$2 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $1,972 +$28 +1%
Will SpaceX raise less than $40B in its IPO? Jun 12 $5,696 +$23 +0%
Will SpaceX raise between $60B and $70B in its IPO? Jun 12 $498 +$2 +0%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 12 $14,016 +$7,483 +53%
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 12 $4,078 +$998 +24%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 12 $3 $0 +5%
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Jun 12 $100 −$97 -97%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $700 +$1,381 +197%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $99 −$28 -29%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $352 −$147 -42%
ECB rate hike in 2026? Jun 11 $6,683 +$1,716 +26%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $2,483 +$17 +1%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $32,110 +$167 +0%
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the June meetin Jun 10 $105 +$2 +2%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in May? Jun 10 $996 +$4 +0%
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.6% or more in May? Jun 10 $1,311 +$10 +1%
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.5% in May? Jun 10 $775 +$11 +1%
Will Core CPI MoM be -0.2% in May? Jun 10 $119 +$1 +1%
Will Core CPI MoM be -0.3% or less in May? Jun 10 $501 +$5 +1%
SpaceX goes public through Bill Ackman "SPAR" company? Jun 10 $49 +$1 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $1,114 +$2,013 +181%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 09 $1,005 +$494 +49%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the July 2026 meeting? Jun 09 $499 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 09 $500 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -96%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2,961 +$731 +25%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election Jun 09 $86 +$744 +865%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $26,893 +$189 +1%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $10B and $13B at market close Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be less than $10B at market close on IPO Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 08 $416 +$869 +209%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $201 +$99 +49%
Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30? Jun 07 $1,740 +$199 +12%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 07 $96 +$1 +1%
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $981 +$24 +2%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $893 +$4 +0%
Will Microsoft acquire TikTok? Jun 05 $1,151 +$313 +27%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 3, 2026? Jun 05 $170 +$3 +2%
Will Quantinuum not IPO before August 2026? Jun 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30? Jun 04 $3,430 +$53 +2%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 03 $39 +$76 +194%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 03 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 33% +$10,357
tech 26% +$13,048
world 17% +$14,425
economics 13% +$2,842
politics 10% +$1,779
finance 1% +$59
sports 0% +$4
crypto 0% +$5,690
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? BUY No 99¢ $36 5m
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY No 99¢ $496 13m
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? BUY No 99¢ $55 23m
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 46m
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $344 1h
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $2 2h
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $2 2h
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $2 2h
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $20 3h
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $2 3h
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $2 3h
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $2 3h
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $14 6h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $27 6h
Glencore and Rio Tinto sale/merger announced by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $9 6h
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $746 6h
Glencore and Rio Tinto sale/merger announced by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $9 7h
Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $6 7h
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $1 7h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 92¢ $42 8h
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $277 8h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 92¢ $73 8h
Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $9 8h
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $2 8h
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $2 8h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 92¢ $99 8h
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $2 8h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 92¢ $131 8h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 92¢ $54 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+76.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +118.1% +97.3% 81% 26% +3.1%
≤30d 78 +95.5% +76.8% 83% 28% +10.6%
≤90d 78 +95.5% +76.8% 83% 28% +10.6%
all 78 +95.5% +76.8% 83% 28% +10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover129.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +76.8% 28% +10.6%
10% +59.9% 24% -0.0%
15% ← realistic here +44.5% 19% -9.7%
20% +30.3% 18% -18.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $364,484.53 · official $364,537.44 (match) · 3500 history records