Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:25:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CA
0xcaaa…6d8d
other · 54 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$80 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$80 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Net worth$0
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses10 / 44
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage547d
Avg bet$319
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 0 History 54 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $9 $0 -0%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $9 +$7 +85%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $55 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $93 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $9 +$5 +50%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 07 $131 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $45 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5? May 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 3? May 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $43 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $45 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $43 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 01 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $42 $0 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 19 $28 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $29 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $7 +$7 +90%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Sabres vs. Senators Apr 06 $6 +$5 +89%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 02 $21 $0 +2%
Lakers vs. Heat Mar 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rott Mar 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $80 $0 +0%
Based FDV above $3B one day after launch? Feb 27 $80 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $13,631 −$14 -0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Jan 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 08 $9 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $42 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 80% −$14
politics 13% −$6
other 4% +$3
tech 1% $0
sports 1% −$63
world 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $9 1h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 14h
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $9 33h
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $9 33h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 2d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 2d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 3d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 3d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 54¢ $4 3d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 54¢ $5 3d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $6 4d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $6 4d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 7d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 7d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $10 7d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 8d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 9d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 9d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 10d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 10d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 11d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +14.0% +3.2% 17% 17% -3.3%
≤30d 17 +4.9% -5.1% 12% 6% -7.7%
≤90d 44 -6.6% -15.5% 20% 9% -13.6%
all 54 -5.5% -14.5% 19% 7% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 7% -9.9%
10% -22.7% 7% -18.6%
15% -30.2% 7% -26.4%
20% -37.0% 6% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 225 history records