Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:13:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CA 0xcaa7…8dfa crypto 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 555d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate75%39W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 85% −$5
crypto 9% +$1
other 2% −$1
sports 1% −$6
politics 1% −$11
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 52 -1.7% -11.1% 75% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.8%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

555d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses39 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage555d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? Apr 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? Apr 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $44 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in January? Feb 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? Feb 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? Jan 02 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Dec 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $230 in November? Dec 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Nov 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Oct 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? Oct 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? Sep 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Aug 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 02 $21 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will US leave NATO by June 30? Jul 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 150% and 200% on April 3 May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 04 $7 $0 +1%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 04 $9 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Apr 12 $5,160 −$5 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Apr 03 $8 $0 +1%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $10 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.15 by February 28 2025? Mar 09 $15 $0 +3%
Will Tyus Jones lead the NBA in Assists? Feb 23 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Feb 19 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the Eastern Conference? Feb 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will Anderlecht win the UEFA Europa League? Feb 16 $21 $0 -0%
Will Sevilla FC win La Liga? Jan 21 $8 −$3 -33%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Dec 25 $32 $0 -2%
Will Inter Milan win the Serie A? Dec 24 $20 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference? Dec 23 $29 −$1 -2%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Dec 23 $8 $0 -5%
Will Payton Pritchard win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? Dec 21 $9 −$2 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $47 1h
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $47 30d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $14 61d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $31 63d
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $19 92d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $27 92d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $20 122d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $24 123d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in January? BUY No 100¢ $11 149d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $30 151d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $8 182d
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $41 182d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $13 211d
Will Solana reach $230 in November? BUY No 100¢ $27 212d
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? BUY No 99¢ $9 242d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 242d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? BUY No 100¢ $14 272d
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? BUY No 100¢ $21 274d
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $16 301d
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? BUY No 100¢ $21 303d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? BUY No 100¢ $17 335d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 100¢ $21 335d
Ethereum all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $8 364d
Will US leave NATO by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $10 365d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 393d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 394d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 395d
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 150% and 200% on April 3 BUY No 100¢ $4 426d
Will Xi visit the US before May? BUY No 100¢ $6 426d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.16 · official $47.16 (match) · 107 history records