Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:58:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CA 0xcaa5…6a69 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,028 (-34%) realized −$1,064 · open +$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$430per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$836now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 66% −$1,120
other 34% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-43.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -27.3% -34.3% 0% 0% -34.3%
≤30d 3 -37.1% -43.1% 0% 0% -58.1%
≤90d 3 -37.1% -43.1% 0% 0% -58.1%
all 3 -37.1% -43.1% 0% 0% -58.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.1% 0% -58.1%
10% -48.5% 0% -62.2%
15% -53.5% 0% -65.8%
20% -58.0% 0% -69.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$392 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$836
Realized−$1,064
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage17d
Avg bet$430
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 15¢ $200 $224 +$24 (+12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $200 $218 +$18 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $103 −$22 -21%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $103 −$35 -34%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $1,983 −$1,120 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $835.98 · official $835.98 (match) · 22 history records