Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:22:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca9f…5cd5 politics 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%4W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$1
other 20% $0
tech 8% $0
world 8% $0
economics 8% $0
sports 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
culture 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
all 25 -0.1% -9.6% 16% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses4 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage126d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $88 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $88 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $88 $0 +0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $88 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $88 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 16 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 13 $88 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $88 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $89 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 14 $89 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $89 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $89 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $89 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 23 $89 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Mar 17 $89 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 14 $89 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 12 $89 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 10 $89 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 08 $89 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 06 $90 $0 -0%
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 04 $89 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 26 $90 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 24 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Feb 22 $90 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $88 1h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $88 16h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $88 4d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $88 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $88 22d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $88 23d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $88 28d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 29d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $0 29d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 29d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $88 30d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $88 30d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $88 39d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $88 39d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $88 41d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $88 41d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $88 44d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $88 45d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $88 49d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $88 50d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $89 70d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $89 70d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $89 73d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $89 73d
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 100¢ $89 77d
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 100¢ $89 78d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $89 80d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $30 80d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $5 80d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $47 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records