Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:49:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca9e…dd9b crypto 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$225 (-9%) realized −$178 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate38%14W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day57.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$817
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -28.5% -35.3% 38% 32% -39.9%
≤30d 37 -28.5% -35.3% 38% 32% -39.9%
≤90d 37 -28.5% -35.3% 38% 32% -39.9%
all 37 -28.5% -35.3% 38% 32% -39.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.3% 32% -39.9%
10% ← realistic here -41.5% 30% -45.6%
15% -47.2% 24% -50.9%
20% -52.3% 24% -55.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$65 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$178
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses14 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage1d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day57.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Up 42¢ 2¢ $50 $3 −$47 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 24 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $104 −$72 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $157 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $52 +$87 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $105 +$186 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 24 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 24 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 24 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 24 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 24 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$60 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 24 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 24 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$69 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$27 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $60 −$57 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 24 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 24 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$76 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$58 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$73 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 24 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 24 $105 −$50 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 24 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $52 −$50 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $52 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $53 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $51 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $51 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $32 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $52 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $52 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $53 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $52 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.98 · official $14.88 · 71 history records