Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:47:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

CA 0xca9c…6b9a other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$71 (-36%) realized −$86 · open +$15

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip

Net edge-34%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$65per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-30.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-23.7%	-30.9%	50%	50%	-51.0%
≤30d	2	-23.7%	-30.9%	50%	50%	-51.0%
≤90d	2	-23.7%	-30.9%	50%	50%	-51.0%
all	2	-23.7%	-30.9%	50%	50%	-51.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-30.9%	50%	-51.0%
10%	-37.5%	0%	-55.7%
15%	-43.6%	0%	-60.0%
20%	-49.1%	0%	-63.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -46% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -24% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$77 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.1 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$59

Realized−$86

Unrealized+$15

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$65

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	59¢	80¢	$44	$59	+$15 (+35%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$37	+$7	+20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$115	−$77	-67%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$45	1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	83¢	$37	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	26¢	$38	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$67	6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$47	6h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.29 · official $59.29 (match) · 7 history records