Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:19:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CA 0xca9c…dd9d crypto 336 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$262 (+12%) realized +$258 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%164W / 170L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$47
14 days+$102
30 days+$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$182
crypto 24% −$45
politics 1% −$2
culture 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +16.2% +5.1% 43% 43% +3.9%
≤30d 44 +6.6% -3.6% 45% 36% +0.7%
≤90d 334 -10.8% -19.3% 49% 41% -3.8%
all 334 -10.8% -19.3% 49% 41% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 41% -3.8%
10% -27.0% 31% -13.0%
15% -34.1% 22% -21.4%
20% -40.5% 16% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized+$258
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses164 / 170
Open positions2
Markets (closed)334 / 336
History coverage65d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 334 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 33¢ 36¢ $70 $75 +$5 (+8%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 87 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $62 −$3 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $72 +$42 +58%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $52 −$29 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $31 +$38 +120%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $42 +$14 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $17 −$1 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $41 −$13 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $155 +$4 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $10 +$4 +37%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $78 +$11 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $31 +$23 +74%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $31 +$2 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $31 −$8 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $21 −$5 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $52 +$22 +42%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $16 −$1 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $21 +$6 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $21 −$4 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $16 −$6 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $16 +$35 +227%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $17 −$5 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $16 −$4 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $26 −$18 -71%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $31 −$10 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $31 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $13 −$7 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $12 −$1 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $15 +$17 +118%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? May 29 $26 −$17 -65%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026? May 29 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $1 $0 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $10 −$6 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $10 −$4 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $51 +$8 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $5 −$1 -23%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 24 $7 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 24 $3 +$1 +43%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $8 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $16 −$11 -68%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week May 23 $66 +$23 +34%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 59 million views on day 5 May 21 $4 +$5 +117%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $12 −$4 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $5 +$2 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $62 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $72 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $59 21h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $114 21h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $72 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $23 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $52 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $62 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $69 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $56 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $16 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $17 5d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $28 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $28 7d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $41 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $31 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $42 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $57 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 7d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $14 8d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $38 8d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $54 8d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $41 8d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 8d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 8d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $51 8d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $30 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.25 · official $134.27 (match) · 900 history records