Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:35:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca99…2092 sports 76 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$111 (-25%) realized −$112 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate29%21W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$4
30 days−$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$38
crypto 27% −$43
other 14% −$33
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-36.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -19.1% -26.8% 44% 44% -21.1%
≤30d 73 -30.1% -36.8% 29% 23% -33.9%
≤90d 73 -30.1% -36.8% 29% 23% -33.9%
all 73 -30.1% -36.8% 29% 23% -33.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.8% 23% -33.9%
10% -42.8% 22% -40.2%
15% -48.4% 22% -46.0%
20% -53.4% 16% -51.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$112
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses21 / 52
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)73 / 76
History coverage19d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 60¢ 80¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+32%)
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Under 39¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+90%)
France to score first vs. Senegal? Yes 67¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $2 +$1 +45%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 -8%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs. Alexander Bublik: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +48%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Anna Blinkova Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles? Jun 06 $5 +$7 +144%
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $1 $0 -22%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 05 $3 −$2 -97%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 03 $3 −$3 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $3 +$4 +158%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $4 −$3 -98%
Jakub Mensik vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $4 +$5 +111%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $17 −$9 -51%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $30 −$27 -92%
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Fonseca Jun 02 $11 −$11 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $6 −$6 -98%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $2 −$1 -32%
Will Anna Kalinskaya win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 02 $2 −$1 -52%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $8 −$5 -62%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $3 −$1 -38%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $5 −$5 -91%
Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs Tabilo Jun 01 $2 −$1 -49%
Frances Tiafoe vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Zachary Svajda: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 31 $3 −$3 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $14 +$17 +124%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $3 −$1 -33%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? May 31 $4 −$1 -21%
Jesper de Jong vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles? May 31 $4 $0 +6%
Casper Ruud vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 4.5 May 31 $3 −$3 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 30 $7 −$6 -81%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 30 $12 −$12 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $15 +$7 +43%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $1 +$1 +73%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $5 −$3 -68%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $16 −$16 -98%
Kouame vs. Tabilo: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 May 30 $3 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 SELL Under 69¢ $1 2m
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Jiri Lehecka 100¢ $2 58m
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $1 1h
France to score first vs. Senegal? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 44¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 58¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 2h
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Jaime Faria 22¢ $1 3h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 44¢ $1 3h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 68¢ $2 3h
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 46¢ $1 4d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Mattia Bellucci 59¢ $1 4d
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs. Alexander Bublik: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 67¢ $1 4d
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 66¢ $1 4d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu SELL Emma Raducanu 100¢ $2 4d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 51¢ $1 4d
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 39¢ $1 7d
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Anna Blinkova BUY Emma Raducanu 100¢ $2 7d
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian BUY Qinwen Zheng 76¢ $3 8d
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes $1 10d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 10d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 10d
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles? SELL Yes 75¢ $1 11d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 11d
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles? SELL Yes 75¢ $1 11d
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 63¢ $1 11d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 11d
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles? SELL Yes 76¢ $3 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.68 · official $3.68 (match) · 178 history records