Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:05:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CA
0xca97…5409
world · 174 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,021 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$702 · open −$164
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5,496
Realized+$702
Unrealized−$164
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses72 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions64
Markets (closed)128 / 174
History coverage49d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day69.1
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 64 History 128 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$150
14 days+$34
30 days−$374
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 80¢ 81¢ $943 $958 +$14 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 99¢ $504 $509 +$5 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $453 $473 +$20 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 63¢ 62¢ $315 $307 −$7 (-2%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 90¢ 99¢ $240 $262 +$22 (+9%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 96¢ $219 $236 +$17 (+8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $253 $230 −$23 (-9%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $197 $199 +$2 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $336 $198 −$138 (-41%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $140 $148 +$7 (+5%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 97¢ 94¢ $142 $139 −$3 (-2%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 32¢ 46¢ $97 $139 +$41 (+42%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $127 $129 +$2 (+2%)
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? No 99¢ 100¢ $110 $111 +$1 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 26¢ 26¢ $108 $108 +$1 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 12¢ 9¢ $143 $100 −$43 (-30%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 67¢ 97¢ $69 $100 +$31 (+45%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 90¢ 91¢ $95 $96 +$2 (+2%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 88¢ 90¢ $89 $92 +$3 (+3%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 72¢ 56¢ $99 $78 −$21 (-22%)
Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $71 $73 +$2 (+3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Yes 63¢ 57¢ $78 $71 −$7 (-9%)
Trump goes to space in 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $61 $62 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? No 97¢ 97¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+1%)
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 95¢ $47 $49 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -108%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $235 −$54 -23%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $7 −$2 -28%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $1,094 +$65 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $25 −$10 -40%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Jun 11 $17 −$1 -6%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $224 +$3 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $26 +$1 +3%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $9 $0 -5%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $11 −$1 -12%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $21 +$3 +14%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 09 $6 −$2 -29%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $126 +$9 +7%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $18 +$1 +7%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $124 +$18 +14%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $25 +$1 +4%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $109 +$9 +8%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $23 +$2 +8%
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $82 +$12 +14%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $181 +$20 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $253 +$36 +14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $108 +$75 +70%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $14 +$7 +50%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $138 +$2 +1%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $21 +$13 +61%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 07 $26 −$26 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $13 −$13 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $134 −$16 -12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $78 −$5 -7%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $32 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $23 +$2 +8%
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31? Jun 06 $9 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $22 +$20 +90%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $52 −$13 -25%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jerome Powell by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $9 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $19 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $28 $0 -1%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? Jun 04 $23 +$2 +7%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $112 −$62 -56%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $929 −$209 -22%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $113 +$3 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $2,503 +$387 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $107 −$63 -58%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $130 +$2 +1%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? Jun 03 $16 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $50 −$25 -51%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $17 +$2 +10%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $252 +$77 +30%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $64 +$11 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 71% +$145
politics 10% +$60
crypto 10% +$471
other 6% −$92
finance 2% +$3
sports 1% −$4
tech 0% −$18
economics 0% +$1
culture 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL Yes 57¢ $24 2m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL Yes 60¢ $4 2m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 2m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 69¢ $1 5m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $0 6m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $0 6m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $35 6m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 68¢ $0 6m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 7m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 7m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 34¢ $9 7m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 7m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 67¢ $0 8m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 67¢ $20 8m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? SELL Yes 46¢ $8 9m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $48 10m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 86¢ $16 10m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 11m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 11m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 11m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 90¢ $9 11m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 90¢ $8 11m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 21m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? BUY Yes 34¢ $6 21m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $49 48m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $50 49m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $16 55m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $12 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -2.8% -12.1% 59% 26% -5.4%
≤30d 96 -3.5% -12.7% 57% 23% -9.5%
≤90d 128 -4.6% -13.7% 56% 22% -4.6%
all 128 -4.6% -13.7% 56% 22% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover69.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 22% -4.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 15% -13.7%
15% -29.5% 12% -22.0%
20% -36.4% 9% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,495.53 · official $5,476.31 (match) · 3500 history records