Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:08:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CA 0xca96…2148 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$229 (-19%) realized −$340 · open +$111
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$627now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$279
other 32% +$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-67.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -63.6% -67.1% 25% 25% -49.6%
≤30d 4 -63.6% -67.1% 25% 25% -49.6%
≤90d 4 -63.6% -67.1% 25% 25% -49.6%
all 4 -63.6% -67.1% 25% 25% -49.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.1% 25% -49.6%
10% -70.2% 25% -54.4%
15% -73.1% 25% -58.8%
20% -75.7% 0% -62.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -64% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$141 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$627
Realized−$340
Unrealized+$111
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage3d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 90¢ $379 $465 +$86 (+23%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score No 56¢ 70¢ $69 $86 +$18 (+26%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Under 72¢ 80¢ $69 $76 +$7 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $262 +$119 +46%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $198 −$194 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $70 −$69 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $161 −$160 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $69 56m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $69 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $382 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $382 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $198 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 68¢ $262 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $70 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $161 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $626.66 · official $626.66 (match) · 8 history records