Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:38:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca93…c4d7 politics 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%5W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% +$1
sports 25% −$3
other 16% −$3
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% −$1
finance 2% $0
culture 0% −$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -14.9% -23.0% 20% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 10 -14.9% -23.0% 20% 0% -9.8%
all 61 -11.7% -20.1% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -27.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -34.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -41.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses5 / 56
Open positions3
Markets (closed)61 / 64
History coverage236d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $87 $87 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $84 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $85 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $89 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -49%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $86 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $90 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $90 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $187 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 25? Feb 26 $92 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 16 $92 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 03 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 03 $181 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 31 $1 $0 -25%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 31 $89 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 28 $92 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 26 $92 $0 -0%
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? Jan 25 $91 $0 +0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 20 $95 −$1 -1%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 20 $92 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 18 $94 $0 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 17 $1 $0 -50%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 17 $90 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 15 $97 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $90 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 13 $95 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 10 $91 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jan 08 $92 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 03 $2 $0 -8%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 03 $1 −$1 -70%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 03 $192 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 01 $189 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 31 $96 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 29 $190 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 27 $188 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 25? Dec 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 25 $189 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair? Dec 23 $93 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 21 $1 $0 -26%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 18 $93 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 16 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 15 $3 −$1 -20%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 14 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 11 $98 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 08 $96 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 04 $98 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 02 $186 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 28 $1 −$1 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $87 1h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 32h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 32h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $84 32h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $84 2d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $85 5d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $87 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $87 8d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 9d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $86 9d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $86 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 13d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 13d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $90 13d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $90 16d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 18d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 18d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $90 18d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $90 19d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 20d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $89 20d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $89 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 25? BUY No 100¢ $92 116d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $92 124d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $92 130d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.42 · official $89.42 (match) · 235 history records