Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:54:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CA 0xca91…1907 sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,980 (-49%) realized −$2,976 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate33%5W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$381per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$510now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$274
7 days−$2,256
14 days−$2,266
30 days−$2,266
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$2,521
sports 27% +$18
politics 7% −$141
crypto 6% −$275
other 3% +$153
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -17.0% -24.9% 50% 50% -70.8%
≤30d 5 -33.6% -39.9% 40% 40% -70.9%
≤90d 11 -34.8% -41.0% 27% 18% -58.5%
all 15 +5.6% -4.5% 33% 27% -54.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 27% -54.4%
10% -13.6% 27% -58.7%
15% -22.0% 27% -62.7%
20% -29.6% 20% -66.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +46% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$320 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$510
Realized−$2,976
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage252d
Avg bet$381
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 69¢ 68¢ $514 $510 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $202 +$72 +36%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $245 +$202 +82%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $352 −$348 -99%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 15 $2,536 −$2,182 -86%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $554 +$9 +2%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 13 $412 −$141 -34%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 10 $629 −$218 -35%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Apr 08 $215 −$215 -100%
Will Poland vs. Albania end in a draw? Mar 26 $44 −$3 -7%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? Mar 26 $149 −$60 -40%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March? Mar 20 $150 −$2 -1%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-03-19? Mar 19 $39 +$66 +171%
Oliveira vs. Gamrot Oct 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Romania win on 2025-10-12? Oct 12 $22 +$88 +396%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $519 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $274 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 73¢ $202 2h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) SELL G2 100¢ $447 3h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 54¢ $245 6h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $352 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $353 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $21 8d
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $2,515 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $214 60d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $211 60d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $349 61d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $343 62d
Trump out as President by April 30? SELL Yes $271 66d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY Yes $412 69d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? SELL No 27¢ $411 69d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? BUY No 41¢ $629 72d
Will Poland vs. Albania end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $41 85d
Will Poland vs. Albania end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $44 85d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? SELL Yes 14¢ $44 85d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? BUY Yes 32¢ $100 90d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March? SELL Yes 60¢ $100 91d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March? BUY Yes 27¢ $45 91d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? SELL Yes 35¢ $45 91d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? BUY Yes 38¢ $48 91d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March? SELL Yes 21¢ $48 91d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March? BUY Yes 45¢ $105 91d
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-03-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $105 91d
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-03-19? BUY Yes 37¢ $39 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $510.27 · official $510.27 (match) · 41 history records