Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:14:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CA
0xca8f…d963
other · 198 markets active 4h ago
7.0score
+$456 +53%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$462 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Chart Positions 52 History 198 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$42
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2026? Yes $6 $12 +$6 (+101%)
Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 10¢ $6 $12 +$6 (+104%)
Will Trump pardon Ryan Salame before 2027? Yes 13¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+117%)
Anduril Industries IPO before 2027? Yes $8 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes $7 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes $9 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Josh Elliott win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Democratic primary election? Yes $9 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Aiemann Zahabi be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 16¢ $0 $7 +$6 (+1792%)
Will the Republican Party win the NM-01 House seat? Yes $7 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Hurupay FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes $4 $6 +$2 (+53%)
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Yes 74¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+819%)
Will the Republican Party win the VA-11 House seat? Yes $7 $6 −$2 (-21%)
Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 48¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+1008%)
Will Oprah Winfrey announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 1.0% before 2027? Yes $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Will Jack Della Maddalena become UFC champion in 2026? Yes $0 $3 +$2 (+1170%)
Hurupay FDV above $30M one day after launch? Yes $1 $2 +$2 (+337%)
Will Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+145%)
Will Scotiabank fail by June 30, 2026? Yes $5 $2 −$3 (-62%)
Will Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-02 House seat? No $1 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes $3 $2 −$2 (-53%)
Will Katie Britt announce a presidential run before 2027? Yes $12 $2 −$10 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Savannah Louie win Survivor Season 50? Jun 03 $0 $0 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 03 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Doug Jones win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary elect May 10 $9 −$3 -32%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Apr 29 $9 +$7 +86%
Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 27 $0 $0 +27%
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Apr 27 $0 +$1 +1739%
Will Malik Evans win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 27 $1 $0 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets in May 2026? Apr 27 $1 $0 -33%
Will Ernest Audino be the Republican nominee for FL-06? Apr 27 $0 +$1 +226%
Will Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? Apr 27 $0 $0 -33%
Will Stephenie LaGrossa Kendrick win Survivor Season 50? Apr 27 $0 $0 +119%
Will Rae Huang win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Apr 26 $0 +$3 +12645%
Will Sung Il-jong win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial e Apr 26 $1 −$1 -89%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in April 2026? Apr 26 $0 $0 -74%
Will Brad Lander be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Apr 26 $0 $0 -70%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Apr 26 $0 +$2 +2387%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 26 $7 +$17 +237%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Apr 26 $0 +$5 +18332%
Crude Oil all time high by April 30? Apr 25 $2 +$5 +248%
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-16 House seat? Apr 24 $7 $0 -0%
Will Germany strike Iran by April 30? Apr 23 $0 $0 +932%
Will the Republican Party win the WI-02 House seat? Apr 23 $6 +$6 +100%
Stars vs. Wild Apr 23 $46 $0 +0%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 22 $51 $0 +0%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 22 $78 $0 -0%
Will Marciele Albuquerque win Big Brother Brasil 26? Apr 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Apr 21 $0 $0 +75%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Apr 21 $2 +$4 +244%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $2 +$2 +78%
Will Waymo launch in Miami by June 30 2026? Apr 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 17? Apr 21 $0 $0 -79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 19? Apr 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater Apr 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 21 $1 $0 +38%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on April 19? Apr 21 $7 +$3 +36%
Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Con Apr 20 $0 $0 -25%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April Apr 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 20 $0 $0 -50%
AI bubble burst in 2026? Apr 20 $0 $0 +106%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $5 +$4 +83%
Claude 4.7 released by May 31? Apr 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Joe Biden by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? Apr 20 $1 $0 +20%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $0 $0 +100%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $0 $0 +167%
Will Vicky Dávila win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential Apr 20 $0 $0 +41%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 20 $7 +$11 +164%
Will Solstice launch a token by June 30 2026? Apr 19 $2 +$3 +117%
Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond? Apr 19 $0 +$1 +6266%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 30% +$153
sports 22% −$27
crypto 19% +$109
politics 11% +$101
world 8% +$24
economics 5% +$11
culture 2% +$26
tech 2% +$40
finance 1% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Anduril Industries IPO before 2027? SELL Yes $0 3h
Will the Republican Party win the KY-04 House seat? SELL No 10¢ $10 12h
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 43h
Will 9-10 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $14 2d
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will the Democratic Party win the AL-03 House seat? SELL Yes $6 3d
Hyperbeat FDV above $400M one day after launch? SELL Yes $2 3d
Forsen to get signed by an LCK prog org by Jun 30? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be less than $150B at market close on IP SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be less than $150B at market close on IP SELL Yes $0 4d
Forsen to get signed by an LCK prog org by Jun 30? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 6d
Will Mada Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary SELL Yes $0 7d
Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be less than $150B at market close on IP SELL Yes $0 7d
Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be between $150B and $200B at market clo SELL Yes $0 7d
Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be less than $150B at market close on IP SELL Yes $0 7d
Will Troy Jackson be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes $0 7d
Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? SELL Yes $3 7d
Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? SELL Yes $1 8d
Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? SELL Yes $0 8d
Will Freddie Mac not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL No $1 8d
Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be between $150B and $200B at market clo SELL Yes $0 8d
Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? SELL Yes $1 8d
Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? SELL Yes $0 9d
Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? SELL Yes $2 9d
EU dissolves before 2027? SELL Yes $0 9d
Will Detroit Tigers win the 2026 American League Championship Series? SELL Yes $2 9d
Will the Democratic Party win the GA-08 House seat? SELL Yes $12 10d
Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes $5 10d
Will the next elected US president be a woman? SELL Yes 16¢ $15 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +74%
net ROI/market (all)+215.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 198 +248.9% +215.6% 79% 74% +37.4%
all 198 +248.9% +215.6% 79% 74% +37.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover49.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +215.6% 74% +37.4%
10% ← realistic here +185.4% 71% +24.3%
15% +157.9% 65% +12.2%
20% +132.6% 58% +1.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.29 · official $144.31 (match) · 3500 history records