Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CA 0xca89…7bc4 sports 821 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$20,830 (+4%) realized +$18,851 · open +$1,979
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate57%454W / 338L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$702per market
Trades / day29.9pace
Fees−$3,952est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$39,516now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6,739
7 days+$8,767
14 days−$290
30 days−$317
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$4,852
other 47% +$22,198
world 1% +$1,882
crypto 0% +$785
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +30.7% +18.2% 57% 54% -4.6%
≤30d 338 +6.0% -4.1% 54% 52% -9.6%
≤90d 792 +7.8% -2.5% 57% 56% -6.5%
all 792 +7.8% -2.5% 57% 56% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.5% 56% -6.5%
10% -11.8% 54% -15.4%
15% ← realistic here -20.3% 48% -23.6%
20% -28.2% 39% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$785) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$500 vs −$621 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$39,516
Realized+$18,851
Unrealized+$1,979
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses454 / 338
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$3,952
Open positions29
Markets (closed)792 / 821
History coverage53d
Avg bet$702
Trades / day29.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 792 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No 77¢ 78¢ $3,696 $3,720 +$24 (+1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 58¢ 74¢ $2,784 $3,528 +$744 (+27%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 71¢ 72¢ $3,408 $3,432 +$24 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 75¢ 76¢ $3,172 $3,235 +$63 (+2%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 50¢ $2,352 $2,424 +$72 (+3%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $2,256 $2,280 +$24 (+1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 54¢ $1,200 $1,728 +$528 (+44%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 89¢ $1,750 $1,691 −$59 (-3%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 92¢ $1,154 $1,645 +$491 (+43%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 98¢ $1,312 $1,563 +$251 (+19%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 93¢ $1,394 $1,495 +$102 (+7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 92¢ $1,430 $1,476 +$46 (+3%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 92¢ $992 $1,464 +$472 (+48%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 84¢ $1,392 $1,352 −$40 (-3%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 72¢ $1,360 $1,144 −$216 (-16%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 70¢ $1,072 $1,128 +$56 (+5%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 69¢ $1,264 $1,112 −$152 (-12%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 52¢ $656 $840 +$184 (+28%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 40¢ $780 $690 −$91 (-12%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 38¢ $546 $683 +$137 (+25%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 25¢ 22¢ $651 $583 −$68 (-10%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $512 $488 −$24 (-5%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 30¢ $944 $488 −$456 (-48%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 26¢ $511 $458 −$53 (-10%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 28¢ $528 $440 −$88 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 320 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $596 +$209 +35%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,340 +$2,460 +105%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $11,712 +$12,288 +105%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $3,408 +$1,392 +41%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,879 +$2,206 +117%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,099 −$2,064 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $4,004 −$3,984 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $3,840 +$960 +25%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5,076 −$276 -5%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $11,097 −$10,990 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,776 +$3,024 +170%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,470 −$1,440 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2,064 −$2,064 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,584 −$1,584 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,304 +$2,496 +108%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3,910 +$890 +23%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $3,552 +$1,248 +35%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,824 +$2,976 +163%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $4,608 +$192 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $612 −$612 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4,788 +$12 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $444 +$4,356 +982%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $3,315 −$1,480 -45%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2,032 +$1,001 +49%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $894 +$1,008 +113%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,152 +$3,648 +317%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,552 −$1,552 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $3,722 −$3,696 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3,863 +$937 +24%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $3,504 −$3,504 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,188 +$440 +37%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,436 −$2,400 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,099 +$2,701 +129%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $4,229 +$1,531 +36%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $3,744 +$1,056 +28%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4,032 +$768 +19%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2,304 +$2,496 +108%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $4,135 −$259 -6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3,486 +$765 +22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,051 +$2,749 +134%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $816 +$3,984 +488%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2,016 +$2,784 +138%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $2,003 +$2,797 +140%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $6,960 −$6,960 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2,160 −$2,160 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $3,312 +$1,488 +45%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2,292 +$2,508 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3,863 +$937 +24%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 12 $1,488 −$1,488 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $3,438 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2,388 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2,340 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2,292 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $2,099 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $4,004 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $8 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $909 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $325 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $20 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $426 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $20 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $24 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $8 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $17 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $49 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $41 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $24 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $8 12h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $2,340 16h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $2,340 16h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $2,340 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $1,800 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $24 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $22 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $45 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $45 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $22 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $113 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $454 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39,515.61 · official $39,395.25 (match) · 2150 history records