Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:30:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca88…efb2 other 308 markets active 2h ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$41,481 (+4%) realized +$40,103 · open +$1,378
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate73%217W / 81L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$3,685per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$21,129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$236
7 days+$972
14 days+$936
30 days+$3,207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 22% −$3,169
politics 22% +$32,367
crypto 21% −$7,470
economics 14% +$11,791
world 10% −$7,537
finance 9% +$13,860
tech 2% +$1,497
sports 0% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +15.2% +4.2% 83% 67% +4.2%
≤30d 32 -0.1% -9.6% 75% 53% +0.1%
≤90d 116 -13.5% -21.8% 67% 39% -11.7%
all 298 -8.5% -17.2% 73% 33% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 33% -6.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 16% -15.2%
15% -32.3% 7% -23.4%
20% -39.0% 5% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$2,966) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$692 vs −$1,378 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$21,129
Realized+$40,103
Unrealized+$1,378
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses217 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions10
Markets (closed)298 / 308
History coverage595d
Avg bet$3,685
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 298 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $4,624 $4,882 +$258 (+6%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 99¢ $4,098 $4,777 +$679 (+17%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 84¢ 99¢ $2,000 $2,371 +$371 (+19%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 86¢ 99¢ $2,033 $2,361 +$327 (+16%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 49¢ 38¢ $2,400 $1,894 −$506 (-21%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 89¢ 94¢ $1,548 $1,630 +$83 (+5%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $1,400 $1,371 −$29 (-2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 91¢ 100¢ $935 $1,022 +$88 (+9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $520 $638 +$118 (+23%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $194 $182 −$11 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France leading at halftime? Jun 23 $504 +$163 +32%
France to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 23 $502 +$73 +14%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1,272 +$122 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $872 +$398 +46%
Brazil to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 20 $340 +$49 +14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $875 +$116 +13%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 20 $1,007 +$66 +7%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $199 +$140 +70%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $351 −$100 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $51 +$30 +59%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $251 +$115 +46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $510 −$153 -30%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $559 −$49 -9%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $1,498 +$272 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $993 +$63 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 04 $168 +$11 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,430 +$445 +31%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $4,500 +$455 +10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,899 +$187 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 31 $2,760 +$186 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 29 $1,219 +$275 +22%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 29 $685 +$226 +33%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 29 $1,714 −$200 -12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 29 $1,090 −$413 -38%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 27 $1,575 +$324 +20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 27 $4,049 +$456 +11%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 26 $902 +$181 +20%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont May 26 $110 +$37 +34%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 26 $161 +$39 +24%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 23 $5,962 +$610 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 17 $104 −$100 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 16? May 16 $1,060 −$1,027 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April? May 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $190–195 in 2025? May 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? May 16 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" or "Biden" during the White House Easter E May 16 $160 −$160 -100%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? May 16 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April? May 16 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in February? May 16 $500 −$500 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026? May 16 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? May 16 $2,048 −$2,048 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 May 16 $2,661 −$2,492 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 49¢ $1,786 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 49¢ $663 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 52¢ $1,791 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 57¢ $150 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $405 6h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $506 6h
France to score first vs. Iraq? BUY Yes 87¢ $502 21h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $504 22h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $203 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,272 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $872 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 77¢ $506 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $875 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $875 3d
Brazil to score first vs. Haiti? BUY Yes 87¢ $340 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $199 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $199 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $183 4d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $47 4d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $45 4d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $62 4d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $162 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $199 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $251 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $251 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 7d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 57¢ $357 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $510 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $510 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,128.51 · official $21,062.08 (match) · 2454 history records