Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:41:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CA
0xca84…27f4
world · 38 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$5 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$42
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses2 / 27
Open positions10
Markets (closed)29 / 38
History coverage17d
Avg bet$352
Trades / day209.8
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 10 History 29 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 74¢ 77¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 97¢ 97¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 13 $0 −$1 -249%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Jun 13 $88 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 13 $70 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $27 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $17 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Jun 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 11 $42 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $31 $0 -0%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 09 $41 $0 -0%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $6 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 09 $379 +$6 +2%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 08 $2,800 −$3 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 08 $34 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats Jun 07 $32 $0 -0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 07 $9 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 06 $9 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 06 $126 $0 -0%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 04 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $9 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 29 $18 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $44 $0 -0%
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? May 28 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 27 $8 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $6 +$6 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 69% +$3
politics 26% $0
other 5% +$6
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 7m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 7m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 16m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 16m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 26m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 26m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 39m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 40m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $5 50m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $5 50m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $5 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $5 2h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 2h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $5 2h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -5.1% -14.2% 5% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 29 -0.1% -9.7% 7% 3% -9.3%
≤90d 29 -0.1% -9.7% 7% 3% -9.3%
all 29 -0.1% -9.7% 7% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover209.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 3% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 3% -18.0%
15% -26.2% 3% -25.9%
20% -33.4% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.11 · official $40.83 · 3500 history records