Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:58:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
CA 0xca82…e1f2 world 23 markets active 6h ago coverage 71d
RISKYcopy with care world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$11,765 (+34%) realized +$11,960 · open −$195
Gross ROI / mkt +88% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +63% what you keep after slip
Net edge+63%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate81%17W / 4L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$1,525per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,831
7 days+$4,831
14 days+$4,831
30 days+$6,755
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 98% +$11,169
crypto 2% +$341
other 0% +$206
politics 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+69.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +93.9% +75.4% 100% 100% +13.0%
≤30d 4 +79.8% +62.7% 100% 100% +15.4%
≤90d 21 +87.7% +69.9% 81% 67% +25.9%
all 21 +87.7% +69.9% 81% 67% +25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +69.9% 67% +25.9%
10% +53.6% 67% +13.9%
15% +38.8% 52% +2.9%
20% +25.2% 48% -7.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +88% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$506) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +78% → late +97% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$715 vs −$56 · ×12.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×53.79 per $1 lost it wins $53.79
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$1,205
Realized+$11,960
Unrealized−$195
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses17 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage71d
Avg bet$1,525
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 60¢ 52¢ $1,100 $960 −$140 (-13%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 33¢ 27¢ $300 $245 −$55 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $18,724 +$4,283 +23%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $103 +$206 +201%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $588 +$341 +58%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $5,123 +$1,924 +38%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 09 $990 +$300 +30%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 20 $2,546 +$1,641 +64%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 17 $221 +$5 +2%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Apr 17 $200 −$12 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Apr 16 $11 +$14 +126%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 16 $213 +$73 +34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $506 +$311 +62%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 15 $2,266 +$2,281 +101%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from April 10 to Apr Apr 13 $20 +$11 +54%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Apr 13 $118 −$47 -40%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 12 $338 +$8 +2%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 12 $170 +$9 +5%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 11 $770 +$188 +24%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $200 +$388 +194%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $37 +$164 +444%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $200 −$138 -69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 29¢ $10,350 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 60¢ $1,100 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 19¢ $309 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $103 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $929 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $80 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $508 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $200 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $264 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $3,000 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 14¢ $1,971 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 14¢ $17 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,204.95 · official $1,204.95 (match) · 209 history records