Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:12:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CA 0xca7e…5828 other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 236d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$90 (+6%) realized +$90 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate89%8W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$29
14 days+$29
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$15
finance 33% +$44
politics 23% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +17.0% +5.9% 100% 100% +5.9%
≤30d 1 +17.0% +5.9% 100% 100% +5.9%
≤90d 3 +8.9% -1.5% 100% 33% -1.3%
all 9 +7.1% -3.1% 89% 22% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 22% -3.1%
10% -12.4% 0% -12.4%
15% -20.8% 0% -20.9%
20% -28.6% 0% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$0 · ×69.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×555.29 per $1 lost it wins $555.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized+$90
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses8 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage236d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 18 $170 +$29 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 06 $161 +$9 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Apr 02 $157 +$7 +4%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 11 $149 +$8 +5%
EU dissolves before 2027? Dec 16 $149 $0 -0%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Dec 01 $142 +$7 +5%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 06 $129 +$13 +10%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in October? Nov 04 $105 +$16 +15%
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 26 $109 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $200 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $199 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $170 37d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? BUY No 95¢ $161 66d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? BUY No 96¢ $157 93d
Maduro out in 2025? BUY No 95¢ $149 184d
EU dissolves before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $149 184d
EU dissolves before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $149 191d
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? BUY No 95¢ $142 224d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 91¢ $129 226d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in October? BUY No 85¢ $60 234d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in October? BUY No 86¢ $9 234d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in October? BUY No 90¢ $37 234d
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election? BUY Yes 98¢ $109 236d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.90 · official $199.90 (match) · 21 history records