Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:02:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

CA 0xca7e…00c4 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL −$3 (-3%) realized −$3 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip

Net edge+15%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate60%3W / 2L

Drawdown56%max

Avg bet$21per market

Trades / day0.8pace

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)+15.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+39.3%	+26.0%	75%	75%	+30.5%
≤30d	5	+27.2%	+15.0%	60%	60%	+18.6%
≤90d	5	+27.2%	+15.0%	60%	60%	+18.6%
all	5	+27.2%	+15.0%	60%	60%	+18.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+15.0%	60%	+18.6%
10%	+4.0%	60%	+7.3%
15%	-6.0%	40%	-3.1%
20%	-15.2%	40%	-12.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 64% · top 2 89% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +31% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +27% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$18 vs −$11 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.43 per $1 lost it wins $2.43

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$3

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses3 / 2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)5 / 5

History coverage12d

Avg bet$21

Trades / day0.8

Drawdown56%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 5 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals	Jun 23	$20	+$35	+172%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals	Jun 23	$18	−$18	-98%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals	Jun 23	$25	+$14	+54%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$19	+$6	+30%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	Jun 11	$21	−$4	-21%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals	SELL Yes	100¢	$55	47m
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	36¢	$20	1h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals	BUY Yes	40¢	$18	1h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals	SELL Yes	100¢	$39	1h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals	BUY Yes	64¢	$25	4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	81¢	$25	8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	61¢	$19	8h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	SELL Yes	2¢	$16	11d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	BUY Yes	3¢	$21	11d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records