Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:20:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca7e…4e99 politics 226 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate19%42W / 181L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$12
other 25% $0
sports 24% −$11
crypto 6% +$1
world 5% −$11
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 52 -0.5% -10.0% 4% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 118 -0.7% -10.1% 11% 0% -10.7%
all 223 -1.0% -10.5% 19% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -10.3%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses42 / 181
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions3
Markets (closed)223 / 226
History coverage138d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 223 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 76¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $21 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $20 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $7 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 16 $30 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $25 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $319 −$5 -2%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $324 −$5 -2%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $12 $0 -3%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $27 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $16 $0 -2%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $30 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $46 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $39 $0 -0%
Trump out as President before 2027? May 28 $15 $0 -1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 25 $16 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $19 $0 -0%
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? May 24 $22 $0 -1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $41 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? May 24 $19 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $6 $0 +1%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $9 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $31 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $7 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $8 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $12 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $15 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $31 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9PM ET May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 19 $6 $0 -3%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $13 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $25 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? May 18 $10 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $7 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $7 1h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $6 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $8 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $8 3h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 3h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 3h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $8 3h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $8 4h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $6 7h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $6 8h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $9 8h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 9h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 9h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 76¢ $5 11h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 44¢ $314 14h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 44¢ $319 14h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports 54¢ $27 28h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports 55¢ $2 28h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports 55¢ $3 28h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports 55¢ $288 28h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $324 28h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 73¢ $7 31h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 73¢ $7 32h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 33h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 33h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $7 33h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.97 · official $19.97 (match) · 1018 history records