Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:27:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CA 0xca78…0b92 other 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$66 (+0%) realized +$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate11%11W / 91L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$9
politics 32% −$7
sports 8% +$80
economics 2% −$1
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 93 +6.5% -3.7% 10% 9% -9.1%
all 102 +2.3% -7.5% 11% 10% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 10% -9.1%
10% -16.3% 4% -17.8%
15% -24.4% 4% -25.8%
20% -31.8% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×15.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses11 / 91
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)102 / 103
History coverage113d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 100¢ 100¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $30 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $173 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $245 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $138 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $297 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $174 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $175 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $150 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $154 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $120 in April? May 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $113 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $267 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $157 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $153 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $143 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $156 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 02 $162 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $141 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $128 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $129 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $143 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $358 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $299 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $183 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $153 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $150 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $152 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $160 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $185 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $190 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $163 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $164 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $148 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $141 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $159 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $161 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 13 $147 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $336 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $180 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $237 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $295 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $167 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $128 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $264 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $133 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $171 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $305 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $290 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $17 1h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $30 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 14d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 15d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 18d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $138 20d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $138 21d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $142 23d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $142 25d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $179 26d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $179 28d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $174 35d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $174 42d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $175 42d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $175 42d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $150 42d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $150 43d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $154 43d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $154 43d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $113 43d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $113 44d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $119 44d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $119 45d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $157 45d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $157 45d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $153 45d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $153 45d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $143 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.99 · official $16.99 (match) · 303 history records