Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:48:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca78…e67e crypto 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 563d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$285 (+3%) realized +$278 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate88%87W / 12L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$556now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% +$23
other 28% +$31
world 11% +$51
politics 9% +$29
weather 5% −$79
tech 4% +$4
sports 3% +$231
finance 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -8.2%
≤90d 18 -9.1% -17.7% 89% 6% -10.7%
all 99 -0.0% -9.5% 88% 9% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 9% -7.0%
10% -18.2% 5% -15.9%
15% -26.1% 2% -24.0%
20% -33.3% 2% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$13 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.18 per $1 lost it wins $3.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

563d coverage
Net worth$556
Realized+$278
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses87 / 12
Open positions4
Markets (closed)99 / 103
History coverage563d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $391 $398 +$7 (+2%)
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 22-28? No 100¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $98 +$2 +2%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world Jun 15 $101 $0 +0%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $154 +$1 +1%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $556 +$5 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $94 +$6 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 29 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 18? May 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on May 18? May 21 $206 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 17? May 18 $91 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 17? May 17 $72 −$72 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or below on May 17? May 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 05 $106 +$13 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 05 $549 +$3 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? Apr 01 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Tesla reach $570 in March? Apr 01 $101 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $96 +$9 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 01 $241 +$1 +0%
Will Tesla dip to $263 in March? Mar 22 $104 +$2 +2%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Mar 09 $500 $0 +0%
Will Canada strike Iran by March 31? Mar 09 $140 +$1 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? Mar 01 $45 $0 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of February? Mar 01 $93 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 23? Feb 23 $1 $0 -18%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world Feb 03 $137 $0 +0%
Will the government shutdown last 60 days or more? Jan 30 $131 +$6 +5%
Maduro mugshot released by Monday? Jan 06 $100 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high before 2026? Jan 06 $625 +$5 +1%
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? Dec 13 $298 +$1 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? Dec 06 $99 +$1 +1%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Dec 06 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $145,000 in November? Dec 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in November? Dec 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Will BNB reach $1400 in November? Dec 06 $121 +$1 +0%
Will Trump talk to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in November? Nov 21 $199 +$2 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Nov 11 $99 $0 +0%
Will the government shutdown end November 10? Nov 11 $30 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November? Nov 10 $294 +$3 +1%
Aster all time high by December 31? Nov 10 $81 +$5 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Nov 06 $60 +$1 +1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-01? Nov 06 $50 +$13 +27%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2025-10-31? Nov 06 $50 +$28 +56%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by October 31? Nov 06 $131 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? Nov 06 $200 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Oct 31 $22 $0 +1%
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? Oct 31 $12 +$2 +19%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 30 $50 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025? Oct 30 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Oct 28 $431 $0 -0%
Texans vs. Ravens Oct 10 $260 +$231 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 22-28? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027? BUY No 98¢ $9 1h
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw BUY No 96¢ $391 17d
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 98¢ $98 17d
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 99¢ $154 17d
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world BUY No 100¢ $101 17d
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 100¢ $20 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $556 27d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $59 38d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $100 38d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $206 38d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or below on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $8 38d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $13 38d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $91 38d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $94 38d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 98¢ $100 49d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $549 82d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 89¢ $106 94d
Will Tesla dip to $263 in March? SELL No 100¢ $106 94d
Will Tesla reach $570 in March? BUY No 100¢ $101 104d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 91¢ $46 106d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 91¢ $50 107d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? BUY No 99¢ $100 107d
Will Tesla dip to $263 in March? BUY No 98¢ $98 107d
Will Tesla dip to $263 in March? BUY No 98¢ $6 107d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $100 107d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $141 107d
Will Canada strike Iran by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $141 107d
Will Canada strike Iran by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $140 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $555.59 · official $555.59 (match) · 277 history records