Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:47:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca78…07d3 crypto 248 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$119 (-1%) realized −$119 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate94%232W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$54
14 days−$68
30 days−$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 27% −$62
weather 26% −$30
sports 21% +$31
other 7% +$16
finance 7% −$31
culture 5% +$9
politics 4% +$9
tech 3% +$7
world 1% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -3.9% -13.0% 84% 3% -13.6%
≤30d 206 -1.3% -10.7% 94% 1% -11.1%
≤90d 246 -1.1% -10.5% 94% 1% -10.7%
all 246 -1.1% -10.5% 94% 1% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 1% -10.7%
10% -19.1% 0% -19.3%
15% -26.9% 0% -27.1%
20% -34.1% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$25 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$119
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses232 / 14
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)246 / 248
History coverage38d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 246 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $29 +$1 +2%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $39 +$1 +3%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 21 $36 +$1 +3%
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FI Jun 20 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 20? Jun 20 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20? Jun 20 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $39 −$21 -53%
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu Jun 20 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the announcers say "Header" during the USA vs Australia FIFA Worl Jun 19 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the USA vs Australia F Jun 19 $39 −$19 -50%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June Jun 19 $39 +$1 +3%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 19? Jun 19 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $39 +$1 +3%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? Jun 18 $39 +$1 +2%
Ethereum above 1,730 on June 17, 6PM ET? Jun 17 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $34 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? Jun 17 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $39 +$1 +2%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 16? Jun 16 $39 −$8 -22%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 16? Jun 16 $39 −$6 -14%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? Jun 15 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 15? Jun 15 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? Jun 15 $39 +$1 +2%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 15 $39 +$1 +3%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $27 +$13 +49%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 +3%
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? Jun 14 $20 $0 +3%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 13, 3PM ET? Jun 13 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $39 +$1 +3%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $39 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Gaming By Legends (BO3) - ROG Journey Jun 13 $39 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Saab (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $7 $0 +3%
Map Handicap: BMB (-1.5) vs Gaming By Legends (+1.5) Jun 13 $39 $0 +1%
Overwatch: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - OCS China Stage 2 Seeding Jun 13 $39 −$12 -30%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $350? Jun 12 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $355? Jun 12 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 8 above $285? Jun 12 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 12? Jun 12 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 97¢ $6 1h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 97¢ $32 1h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota - Game 3 Winner SELL Toronto KOI 100¢ $30 1h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota - Game 3 Winner BUY Toronto KOI 97¢ $29 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 98¢ $10 11h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 97¢ $29 11h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Team Spirit 97¢ $7 14h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Team Spirit 97¢ $30 14h
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FI BUY Yes 98¢ $39 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 32h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 46¢ $14 32h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 32h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 97¢ $39 33h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $39 36h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20? BUY Yes 98¢ $39 37h
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 20? BUY Yes 98¢ $39 39h
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the USA vs Australia F SELL Yes 50¢ $20 2d
Will the announcers say "Header" during the USA vs Australia FIFA Worl BUY Yes 97¢ $39 2d
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the USA vs Australia F BUY Yes 97¢ $39 2d
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 98¢ $39 2d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 19? BUY Yes 97¢ $24 2d
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June BUY Yes 97¢ $6 2d
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June BUY Yes 97¢ $19 2d
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June BUY Yes 97¢ $14 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 97¢ $34 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 2d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 19? BUY Yes 97¢ $15 2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 97¢ $39 2d
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu BUY Yes 98¢ $28 3d
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu BUY Yes 98¢ $11 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.12 · official $58.68 (match) · 632 history records