Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:01:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CA
0xca76…3d14
sports · 23 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$35 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$35 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$107
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions8
Markets (closed)15 / 23
History coverage6d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 8 History 15 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days+$35
14 days+$35
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $20 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 51¢ 46¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 37¢ 56¢ $5 $7 +$3 (+53%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 TYLOO 45¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Golden Knights 50¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS (BO5) - MPL Indonesia Playoffs EVOS 50¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 39¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 B8 27¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 MIBR 37¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$34 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $20 +$11 +53%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$15 +74%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $20 +$20 +99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 +$13 +66%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $20 −$19 -97%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $20 −$19 -97%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS (BO5) - MPL Ind Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $20 +$22 +112%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 +$10 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 72% $0
other 27% +$34
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $10 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 13h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 25h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 25h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $20 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 64¢ $20 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 27¢ $5 25h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 39¢ $10 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 34h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 56¢ $20 34h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY BetBoom Team 49¢ $20 34h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 59¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 45¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 37¢ $20 3d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS (BO5) - MPL Ind BUY EVOS 50¢ $20 4d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 50¢ $20 4d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 46¢ $20 6d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY G2 66¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +8.0% -2.3% 60% 60% +3.8%
≤30d 15 +8.0% -2.3% 60% 60% +3.8%
≤90d 15 +8.0% -2.3% 60% 60% +3.8%
all 15 +8.0% -2.3% 60% 60% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 60% +3.8%
10% -11.7% 60% -6.1%
15% -20.2% 60% -15.2%
20% -28.0% 47% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.28 · official $107.29 (match) · 33 history records