Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:50:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CA 0xca73…96ba sports 366 markets active 5h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$34 (-6%) realized −$35 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%203W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$2
14 days−$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$28
other 10% −$13
tech 2% −$1
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +7.7% -2.6% 56% 56% -12.8%
≤30d 126 +4.6% -5.3% 62% 58% -8.5%
≤90d 361 -3.7% -12.9% 56% 52% -16.8%
all 361 -3.7% -12.9% 56% 52% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 52% -16.8%
10% -21.2% 40% -24.8%
15% -28.8% 29% -32.0%
20% -35.8% 15% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses203 / 158
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)361 / 366
History coverage48d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 361 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 33¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $3 −$2 -66%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $4 $0 -8%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $2 $0 +21%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $6 −$1 -8%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $3 $0 -4%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $11 −$3 -26%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $2 $0 -14%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $1 +$1 +67%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $4 −$1 -15%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $1 −$1 -56%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $3 −$1 -23%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $2 +$1 +45%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 13 $1 −$1 -51%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $1 −$1 -80%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $2 +$1 +34%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $2 −$1 -54%
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $1 +$1 +67%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 12 $1 −$1 -59%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $1 +$1 +73%
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal Jun 12 $1 +$1 +67%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 12 $1 +$1 +83%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $1 $0 +39%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Hernan Casanova Jun 11 $1 $0 +23%
Tucuman: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 11 $1 −$1 -67%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $1 +$1 +52%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton Jun 11 $1 −$1 -87%
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 10 $1 +$1 +70%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 10 $2 $0 +13%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 10 $1 +$1 +109%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $1 −$1 -82%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Ella McDonald Jun 09 $1 $0 +24%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Jonas Forejtek Jun 09 $1 −$1 -57%
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Alice Tubello Jun 09 $1 $0 +26%
Modena: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 09 $1 +$1 +73%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $1 +$1 +65%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 09 $1 +$1 +83%
Bratislava: Tiago Pereira vs Andrej Martin Jun 09 $1 $0 -24%
Cattolica: Andrea Guerrieri vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 08 $1 −$1 -71%
Lyon: Laslo Djere vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 08 $1 +$1 +57%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $1 −$1 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke SELL Jay Clarke 28¢ $1 5h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Jay Clarke 79¢ $3 5h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Martin Krumich 77¢ $1 26h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny SELL Martin Krumich 74¢ $2 26h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Martin Krumich 92¢ $3 26h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 82¢ $2 28h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 76¢ $1 29h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Genaro Alberto Olivieri 87¢ $1 29h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Marco Cecchinato 93¢ $5 31h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato SELL Carlo Alberto Caniato $0 31h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Carlo Alberto Caniato 50¢ $1 31h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 16¢ $1 31h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 88¢ $2 31h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli SELL Federico Bondioli 34¢ $1 31h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 52¢ $1 31h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 71¢ $1 2d
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 83¢ $5 2d
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov SELL Jack Pinnington Jones 35¢ $2 2d
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 88¢ $5 2d
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov SELL Denis Shapovalov 11¢ $0 2d
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 56¢ $1 2d
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Talia Gibson 77¢ $1 2d
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones SELL Francesca Jones 31¢ $0 2d
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Francesca Jones 70¢ $1 2d
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 55¢ $1 2d
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 59¢ $1 2d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce SELL Terence Atmane 42¢ $1 2d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 36¢ $1 2d
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Qinwen Zheng 92¢ $3 2d
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari SELL Maria Sakkari $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.44 · official $16.44 (match) · 818 history records