Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:50:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca73…6d17 crypto 229 markets active 0h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$197 (-5%) realized −$197 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate27%62W / 167L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$51
14 days−$88
30 days−$273
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$240
other 5% −$32
economics 2% +$10
politics 1% −$3
world 1% −$7
sports 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -15.4% -23.5% 12% 6% -11.8%
≤30d 215 -7.6% -16.4% 27% 22% -16.6%
≤90d 215 -7.6% -16.4% 27% 22% -16.6%
all 229 -7.4% -16.2% 27% 21% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 21% -15.9%
10% -24.2% 19% -23.9%
15% -31.5% 15% -31.3%
20% -38.2% 14% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$197
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses62 / 167
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)229 / 229
History coverage159d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 229 Trades
no open positions (99 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 23 $147 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $147 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 23 $300 −$5 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $150 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $451 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 23 $150 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 23 $150 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 22 $11 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $11 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $11 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 22 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $11 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $14 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $14 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $29 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $15 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $12 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$14 +338%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 21 $32 −$22 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$6 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$7 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$11 +498%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $146 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $147 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $147 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $147 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $147 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $150 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $148 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $150 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $151 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $150 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $150 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $150 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $150 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $150 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $151 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $151 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $150 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $150 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $150 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $150 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $11 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $11 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $11 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $11 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 426 history records