Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:46:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CA
0xca70…0908
sports · 1441 markets active 2h ago
2.0score
+$13 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$14 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$26
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses683 / 696
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions27
Markets (closed)1379 / 1441
History coverage78d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 27 History 1379 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$25
14 days+$17
30 days+$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner MOUZ 45¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+122%)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5) MOUZ 67¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+49%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 56¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+46%)
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) MOUZ 69¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+45%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 48¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) G2 73¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage GenOne 43¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs GenOne (+1.5) GenOne 66¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Legacy 56¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner GenOne 45¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Aurora Gaming 38¢ 38¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner GenOne 45¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) G2 63¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs STATE (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A STATE 83¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 65¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Aurora Gaming 43¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 33¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Legacy 32¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Legacy 34¢ 33¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 55¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Aurora Gaming 26¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 42¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Map Handicap: Abyssal (-1.5) vs MARKandLARRY (+1.5) Abyssal 50¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $1 +$1 +55%
Map Handicap: ex-RUBY (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) Jun 12 $1 +$1 +146%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 +$1 +62%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 +$1 +61%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs F5 Esports (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +73%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +32%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -58%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 +$1 +54%
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+1.5) Jun 11 $1 +$1 +55%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5) Jun 11 $1 +$1 +124%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +90%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 $0 -16%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 11 $1 +$1 +51%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1 +$1 +118%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -87%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -71%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1 +$2 +226%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 +$2 +165%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1 +$1 +79%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs KOLESIE (+1.5) Jun 11 $1 +$1 +83%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: KOLESIE (-3.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+3.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 +$1 +76%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Ding Cuts (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +11%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BetBoom Team (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) Jun 11 $1 $0 +48%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 +$2 +81%
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $1 +$1 +70%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1 +$1 +64%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs Leo Team (+1.5) Jun 10 $1 $0 +46%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $1 +$1 +134%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $1 +$1 +134%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $1 $0 +38%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $1 +$1 +105%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Map Handicap: NEW VISION (-1.5) vs XI Esport (+1.5) Jun 10 $1 $0 -44%
Map Handicap: YN (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) Jun 10 $1 $0 +46%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $1 +$1 +105%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $1 −$1 -66%
Map Handicap: OLDBOYS PL (-1.5) vs Falcons Force (+1.5) Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $1 $0 +28%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Ursa (-3.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+3.5) Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 52% +$71
crypto 39% −$54
other 9% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs STATE (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A BUY STATE 83¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner SELL ex-RUBY 100¢ $2 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 7h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 3.5 SELL Under $0 11h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 41¢ $1 12h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 41¢ $1 12h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 32¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 26¢ $1 12h
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 73¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 34¢ $1 12h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5) BUY MOUZ 67¢ $1 12h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY G2 63¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $1 12h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Legacy 56¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 33¢ $1 12h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) BUY MOUZ 69¢ $1 12h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 43¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 45¢ $1 12h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 38¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 42¢ $1 12h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $1 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 100¢ $2 14h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 12¢ $1 15h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 75¢ $1 15h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1 15h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St BUY GenOne 43¢ $1 16h
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs GenOne (+1.5) BUY GenOne 66¢ $1 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 188 +3.4% -6.4% 54% 53% -0.8%
≤30d 752 +1.5% -8.1% 50% 48% -2.6%
≤90d 1379 -0.9% -10.3% 50% 48% -9.0%
all 1379 -0.9% -10.3% 50% 48% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 48% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 46% -17.7%
15% -26.8% 42% -25.7%
20% -33.9% 39% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.27 · official $26.27 (match) · 2674 history records