Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:18:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca6e…af60 other 306 markets active 0h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$91 (-0%) realized −$154 · open +$63
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate90%240W / 26L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$4,639now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$853
7 days−$387
14 days−$221
30 days−$654
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$673
crypto 19% +$373
world 12% +$195
politics 11% +$241
tech 7% −$164
finance 7% +$67
sports 6% −$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +1.5% -8.1% 91% 13% -14.4%
≤30d 135 +1.4% -8.2% 91% 16% -12.1%
≤90d 256 +2.1% -7.6% 90% 14% -9.9%
all 266 +1.8% -7.9% 90% 14% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 14% -9.8%
10% -16.7% 8% -18.4%
15% -24.7% 5% -26.3%
20% -32.1% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$91 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$4,639
Realized−$154
Unrealized+$63
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses240 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions40
Markets (closed)266 / 306
History coverage113d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 266 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 99¢ 99¢ $441 $442 +$1 (+0%)
Will Cape Verde reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $337 $341 +$3 (+1%)
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 Over 96¢ 96¢ $322 $322 +$1 (+0%)
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 96¢ $264 $271 +$7 (+3%)
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 82¢ $243 $248 +$4 (+2%)
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $235 $236 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $234 $235 +$1 (+1%)
Panama vs. England: Neither team to score first? No 95¢ 96¢ $189 $191 +$2 (+1%)
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $189 $187 −$1 (-1%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? No 94¢ 97¢ $174 $180 +$6 (+3%)
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 95¢ 96¢ $143 $144 +$1 (+1%)
Will Iván Cepeda win between 40% and 45% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $134 $134 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 96¢ $126 $128 +$2 (+2%)
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 99¢ $106 $112 +$6 (+5%)
Will Egypt reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 97¢ $109 $110 +$1 (+1%)
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? No 93¢ 97¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 93¢ 99¢ $93 $99 +$6 (+7%)
Will Cape Verde reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 98¢ 99¢ $98 $99 +$2 (+2%)
Will Egypt reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 98¢ 98¢ $98 $98 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ghana reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 97¢ $96 $97 +$1 (+1%)
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 93¢ 94¢ $93 $94 +$1 (+1%)
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 97¢ $83 $86 +$2 (+3%)
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 92¢ $81 $83 +$2 (+2%)
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 93¢ $66 $64 −$2 (-3%)
Will USA win the World Cup? No 96¢ 98¢ $53 $54 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran be the highest-scoring team in Group G during the Group Stag Jun 27 $238 +$7 +3%
Will Belgium be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 27 $246 +$12 +5%
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $18 +$2 +10%
Will England be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 27 $7 $0 +4%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $154 +$46 +30%
Will Senegal be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group S Jun 26 $44 +$3 +6%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the first round of the 2026 Colombia Jun 26 $185 +$3 +2%
Will Türkiye be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group S Jun 26 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian pres Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
Will voter turnout be 57-60% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 26 $375 +$31 +8%
Will voter turnout be 60%+ in the first round of the 2026 Colombian pr Jun 26 $113 +$6 +6%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Antioquia in the second rou Jun 25 $39 +$1 +2%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 25 $46 +$4 +9%
Will Cape Verde go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 25 $48 −$32 -66%
Will Ghana go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 25 $47 −$21 -44%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2,136 −$885 -42%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Antioquia in the second round of Jun 25 $41 +$1 +3%
Will Germany go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 25 $35 −$32 -92%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 25 $290 +$130 +45%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 25 $468 +$177 +38%
Will South Africa be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Gr Jun 25 $55 +$1 +3%
Will South Korea be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Gro Jun 25 $236 +$37 +16%
Will Czechia be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Group S Jun 25 $45 +$5 +11%
Will Scotland be the highest-scoring team in Group C during the Group Jun 25 $91 +$9 +10%
Will Brazil be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 25 $279 +$16 +6%
Will Canada go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 24 $73 +$1 +1%
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Colombia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 24 $55 +$5 +10%
Will Portugal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 23 $74 +$2 +2%
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $49 +$1 +3%
Will France be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 23 $47 +$3 +7%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $49 +$1 +3%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $97 +$3 +3%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $46 +$4 +10%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $145 +$5 +4%
Will Iván Cepeda win less than 30% of votes in the first round of the Jun 22 $49 +$1 +2%
Will New Zealand be the highest-scoring team in Group G during the Gro Jun 22 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Saudi Arabia go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 21 $81 +$5 +7%
Will Spain be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 21 $96 +$1 +2%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $1 $0 +1%
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 21 $95 +$1 +1%
Will Ivory Coast go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 21 $576 +$32 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $87 +$13 +15%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $47 +$3 +7%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $28 $0 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Sweden be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Jun 20 $45 +$4 +9%
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Wor Jun 20 $30 +$20 +67%
Will voter turnout be 51-54% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $48 0m
Panama vs. England: Neither team to score first? BUY No 94¢ $47 2m
Panama vs. England: Neither team to score first? BUY No 94¢ $5 2m
Panama vs. England: Neither team to score first? BUY No 94¢ $25 2m
Panama vs. England: Neither team to score first? BUY No 94¢ $17 4m
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $24 6m
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $24 6m
Panama vs. England: Neither team to score first? BUY No 95¢ $80 8m
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $48 10m
Panama vs. England: Neither team to score first? BUY No 95¢ $15 10m
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $48 11m
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $48 20m
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $48 38m
Spread: Panama (-1.5) BUY England 99¢ $50 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $33 1h
Will Ghana reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $18 1h
Will DR Congo reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 99¢ $441 1h
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $138 2h
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $2 10h
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $40 16h
Will Iran be the highest-scoring team in Group G during the Group Stag SELL No 98¢ $3 16h
Will Iran be the highest-scoring team in Group G during the Group Stag SELL No 98¢ $20 16h
Will Egypt reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $17 16h
Will Cape Verde reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $49 17h
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $8 17h
Will Belgium be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $19 18h
Will Egypt reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $23 18h
Will Cape Verde reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $195 18h
Will Cape Verde reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $49 18h
Will Egypt reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $8 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,638.90 · official $4,638.90 (match) · 1868 history records