Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:56:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CA
0xca6e…5fd1
other · 10 markets active 2h ago
2.5score
−$2 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$25
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)5 / 10
History coverage34d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%
Chart Positions 5 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Spurs 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Pistons 39¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 +$3 +42%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +47%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 53% +$2
world 20% +$4
sports 16% −$8
crypto 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 23h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $6 23h
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 64¢ $5 33d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 78¢ $5 33d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 39¢ $3 33d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? BUY No 68¢ $5 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +38.9% +25.7% 100% 100% +25.9%
≤30d 3 +38.9% +25.7% 100% 100% +25.9%
≤90d 5 -16.6% -24.6% 60% 60% -16.0%
all 5 -16.6% -24.6% 60% 60% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 60% -16.0%
10% -31.8% 60% -24.0%
15% -38.4% 40% -31.4%
20% -44.4% 0% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.17 · official $25.18 (match) · 13 history records