Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:06:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CA 0xca6b…6d88 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$285 (+17%) realized +$208 · open +$77
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$677now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$336
crypto 35% +$4
sports 6% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.5% -11.8% 71% 57% +13.0%
≤30d 7 -2.5% -11.8% 71% 57% +13.0%
≤90d 7 -2.5% -11.8% 71% 57% +13.0%
all 7 -2.5% -11.8% 71% 57% +13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 57% +13.0%
10% -20.2% 29% +2.2%
15% -27.9% 29% -7.7%
20% -35.0% 29% -16.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +25% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$7 · ×7.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×19.7 per $1 lost it wins $19.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$677
Realized+$208
Unrealized+$77
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage6d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $600 $677 +$77 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $600 +$4 +1%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $254 +$231 +91%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $105 +$18 +17%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $200 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $301 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $600 11h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 52¢ $203 25h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 36h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 36h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $676.65 · official $676.65 (match) · 17 history records