Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:20:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CA 0xca69…eb27 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$3 (+15%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +3.3% -6.5% 80% 80% -16.5%
≤30d 5 +3.3% -6.5% 80% 80% -16.5%
≤90d 5 +3.3% -6.5% 80% 80% -16.5%
all 5 +3.3% -6.5% 80% 80% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 80% -16.5%
10% -15.5% 40% -24.4%
15% -23.7% 0% -31.7%
20% -31.1% 0% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Gen.G 47¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $4 +$2 +34%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $12 −$3 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records