Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:44:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CA 0xca68…bd3a crypto 593 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,163 (-17%) realized −$2,178 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate13%79W / 511L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$126
7 days+$23
14 days−$283
30 days−$663
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$2,324
other 4% +$234
sports 2% −$133
finance 0% −$24
world 0% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-41.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -8.3% -17.0% 17% 17% -5.7%
≤30d 132 -33.6% -39.9% 13% 11% -25.0%
≤90d 421 -34.5% -40.8% 14% 12% -25.5%
all 590 -35.3% -41.5% 13% 12% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.5% 12% -25.3%
10% -47.1% 11% -32.4%
15% -52.2% 10% -38.9%
20% -56.9% 10% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$13 · ×4.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized−$2,178
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses79 / 511
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)590 / 593
History coverage123d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 590 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Yes 19¢ 34¢ $82 $144 +$61 (+75%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 27? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $37 $13 −$24 (-65%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 25? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$22 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 285 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $30 +$261 +872%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $57 −$49 -86%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $22 −$17 -76%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $67 +$27 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $17 −$6 -34%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $16 +$64 +404%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? Jun 25 $26 −$1 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 25? Jun 24 $9 −$8 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $18 −$17 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $15 −$13 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Jun 24 $16 −$7 -44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $31 −$29 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $19 −$17 -87%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? Jun 23 $19 −$18 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $36 −$34 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $47 −$45 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $36 −$30 -85%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $47 +$111 +235%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $28 −$20 -69%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $19 −$17 -87%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $38 −$30 -80%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $24 +$68 +283%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 20? Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 20? Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 18 $30 −$28 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $13 −$12 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $16 −$8 -54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $23 −$21 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 −$28 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 17? Jun 17 $33 −$31 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 −$25 -83%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $24 −$21 -87%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $24 −$22 -92%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 18? Jun 17 $17 −$16 -94%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 16? Jun 16 $24 −$23 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? Jun 16 $25 −$22 -92%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $13 −$12 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $40 −$2 -4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $14 −$13 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $39 −$37 -93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $27 −$23 -86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $11 −$8 -74%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $17 −$12 -70%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $76 +$2 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $63 +$147 +232%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 34m
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 36m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 14¢ $13 37m
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 12¢ $29 38m
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 23¢ $21 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 46¢ $290 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 20¢ $53 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 4¢ $30 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 40¢ $68 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 11h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 11h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 8¢ $30 11h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 11h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 8¢ $22 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 3¢ $11 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 9¢ $16 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.88 · official $146.83 · 2160 history records