Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:19:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca63…a3ff crypto 578 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$123 (+4%) realized +$123 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%277W / 301L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day32.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days−$419
14 days−$482
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 -15.0% -23.1% 42% 42% -46.5%
≤30d 578 -5.9% -14.9% 48% 47% -7.1%
≤90d 578 -5.9% -14.9% 48% 47% -7.1%
all 578 -5.9% -14.9% 48% 47% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 47% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 47% -16.0%
15% -30.5% 47% -24.1%
20% -37.3% 47% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$123
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses277 / 301
Open positions0
Markets (closed)578 / 578
History coverage20d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day32.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 578 Trades
no open positions (212 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$13 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$12 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$11 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$14 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$7 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$7 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$8 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$7 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1044 history records