Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:17:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca61…dc6a crypto 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$34 (+1%) realized −$17 · open +$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate72%28W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$1,302now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$49
14 days+$51
30 days+$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$90
other 43% +$74
sports 8% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -2.3% -11.6% 55% 36% +1.8%
≤30d 14 -2.3% -11.6% 57% 43% +3.7%
≤90d 39 -7.2% -16.0% 72% 31% -10.2%
all 39 -7.2% -16.0% 72% 31% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 31% -10.2%
10% -24.1% 15% -18.8%
15% -31.4% 10% -26.6%
20% -38.1% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$22 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$1,302
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$51
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses28 / 11
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions17
Markets (closed)39 / 56
History coverage63d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $200 $229 +$29 (+15%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $131 +$31 (+31%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 68¢ 80¢ $100 $117 +$17 (+17%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 78¢ $85 $99 +$14 (+17%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $75 $80 +$5 (+7%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 86¢ $65 $77 +$12 (+19%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 76¢ $65 $71 +$6 (+9%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $60 $69 +$9 (+15%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 42¢ $100 $61 −$39 (-39%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $65 $59 −$6 (-9%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 62¢ $65 $58 −$7 (-11%)
Will Uzbekistan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 67¢ 72¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Will New Zealand be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $21 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $51 +$14 +27%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$16 +54%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$15 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 +$13 +44%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -87%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $61 +$5 +7%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $51 +$4 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $13 +$2 +16%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $18 −$11 -59%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 26 $100 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5PM ET Apr 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8AM ET Apr 19 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8PM ET Apr 19 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7PM ET Apr 18 $80 +$7 +9%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $16 −$5 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11AM ET Apr 18 $80 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8AM ET Apr 18 $80 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5AM ET Apr 18 $80 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3AM ET Apr 18 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10PM ET Apr 18 $80 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9PM ET Apr 18 $80 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3PM ET Apr 17 $80 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2PM ET Apr 17 $80 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3AM ET Apr 17 $80 +$15 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11PM ET Apr 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10PM ET Apr 17 $80 +$19 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3PM ET Apr 16 $80 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1PM ET Apr 16 $80 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12PM ET Apr 16 $80 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7AM ET Apr 16 $80 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1AM ET Apr 16 $80 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9PM ET Apr 16 $80 +$4 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 15 $25 −$21 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11AM ET Apr 15 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9AM ET Apr 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $59 12m
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $65 29m
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 58m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 4h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 24h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 25¢ $10 42h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 45h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 45h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 45h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 45h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 45h
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 46h
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 46h
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 46h
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 46h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 47h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $50 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,301.64 · official $1,301.64 (match) · 155 history records