Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CA 0xca61…dc6a crypto 36 markets active 7d ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$123 (+6%) realized +$123 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%13W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$89
economics 3% $0
other 1% +$3
tech 1% $0
sports 1% −$4
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.8% -6.1% 100% 0% -6.1%
≤30d 25 -5.2% -14.2% 52% 44% -5.2%
≤90d 25 -5.2% -14.2% 52% 44% -5.2%
all 25 -5.2% -14.2% 52% 44% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 44% -5.2%
10% -22.4% 36% -14.3%
15% -29.9% 32% -22.6%
20% -36.8% 32% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$56 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$123
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses13 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)25 / 36
History coverage15d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 96¢ 94¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 93¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
SBF released from custody in 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 81¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+23%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 82¢ 88¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - M Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 28 $80 +$16 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 27 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $4 +$3 +69%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 26 $42 +$48 +115%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 26 $53 −$50 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 26 $52 +$37 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 26 $505 +$83 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 26 $23 −$21 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 26 $42 +$83 +197%
Kosice: Jay Clarke vs Milos Karol May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 26 $137 −$130 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 26 $116 −$116 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 26 $42 −$40 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 26 $53 −$50 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 26 $208 +$240 +116%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 26 $42 −$42 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 26 $147 −$140 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 26 $54 +$120 +222%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 26 $52 −$50 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 26 $40 +$37 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 26 $102 +$36 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 26 $52 +$55 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $50 6d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - M BUY Geek Fam ID 96¢ $10 6d
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 6d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $5 6d
Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 6d
SBF released from custody in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $10 6d
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 6d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $10 6d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $10 6d
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 19d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $96 20d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $24 20d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 20d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 20d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 20d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 20d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $24 20d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 20d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $14 20d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $5 20d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $42 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $42 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $505 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $23 21d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 21d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 21d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.42 · official $107.42 (match) · 88 history records