Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CA 0xca5f…7854 crypto 755 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,024 (-1%) realized −$1,024 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%419W / 336L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day36.9pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$107
7 days−$958
14 days−$538
30 days−$2,044
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$2,158
sports 5% −$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -7.8% -16.6% 53% 53% -21.7%
≤30d 481 -6.2% -15.1% 54% 54% -13.2%
≤90d 755 -4.6% -13.7% 55% 55% -11.7%
all 755 -4.6% -13.7% 55% 55% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 55% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 55% -20.1%
15% -29.5% 55% -27.8%
20% -36.4% 51% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$123 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,024
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses419 / 336
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions0
Markets (closed)755 / 755
History coverage47d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day36.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 755 Trades
no open positions (336 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $77 +$56 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $104 +$143 +137%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $78 +$73 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$72 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $77 +$44 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $77 −$75 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$75 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $77 +$55 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $77 +$52 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$79 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$105 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $77 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $77 +$58 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $77 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$69 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $77 +$44 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$79 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $77 +$57 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $77 −$75 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 13 $400 −$400 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $77 −$75 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $77 +$58 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $77 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$75 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $77 +$54 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $78 +$54 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $77 −$75 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $78 −$76 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $77 +$55 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $103 +$65 +63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $77 +$61 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $103 +$72 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $77 −$75 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $77 −$75 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $77 +$54 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $78 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $77 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $77 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $77 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $77 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $78 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $87 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $16 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $77 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $77 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $77 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $74 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $29 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $22 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $81 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2171 history records