Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:04:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca5f…e9cc weather 35 markets active 5d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (289 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$87 (-8%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate23%8W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day289.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (289 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -6.6% -15.5% 23% 6% -19.1%
≤30d 35 -6.6% -15.5% 23% 6% -19.1%
≤90d 35 -6.6% -15.5% 23% 6% -19.1%
all 35 -6.6% -15.5% 23% 6% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover289.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 6% -19.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 3% -26.9%
15% -30.9% 3% -33.9%
20% -37.7% 3% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses8 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage1d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day289.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $14 −$2 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $42 −$8 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 −$3 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 −$6 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $31 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 −$4 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $37 −$5 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 −$3 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $76 −$23 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $61 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $81 −$33 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $53 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $34 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $49 −$4 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? Jun 11 $7 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12? Jun 11 $7 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $45 −$6 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $94 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $187 −$18 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$2 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $24 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 11 $14 −$3 -19%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 11 $29 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 11 $23 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? SELL No 95¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? SELL No 63¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? SELL No 91¢ $8 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 42¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? SELL No 69¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 52¢ $16 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 89¢ $32 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? SELL No 75¢ $25 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 57¢ $32 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? SELL No 97¢ $15 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? SELL No 91¢ $19 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? SELL No 58¢ $13 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? SELL Yes 36¢ $9 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? SELL No 54¢ $43 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? SELL No 98¢ $64 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? SELL No 57¢ $49 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? SELL No 93¢ $51 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? SELL No 74¢ $24 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 45¢ $30 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? SELL No 53¢ $14 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? SELL Yes 34¢ $8 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 59¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 66¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 70¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 289 history records