Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:08:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CA 0xca5c…4fa1 other 11 markets active 4d ago coverage 72d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$974 (-29%) realized −$974 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%2W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$308per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$956
14 days−$956
30 days−$943
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$961
sports 21% −$13
politics 14% −$2
world 7% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -50.1% -54.8% 0% 0% -54.7%
≤30d 7 -28.6% -35.4% 14% 0% -39.0%
≤90d 11 -27.1% -34.0% 18% 0% -35.6%
all 11 -27.1% -34.0% 18% 0% -35.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.0% 0% -35.6%
10% -40.3% 0% -41.8%
15% -46.1% 0% -47.4%
20% -51.4% 0% -52.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$125 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$974
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses2 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage72d
Avg bet$308
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $466 −$465 -100%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $470 $0 -0%
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? Jun 10 $490 −$490 -100%
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? Jun 10 $489 −$2 -0%
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Fukushima United FC: O/U 5.5 Jun 02 $481 +$19 +4%
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? Jun 01 $491 −$7 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 27 $8 $0 -3%
Spread: Al Okhdood SC (-1.5) Apr 30 $40 −$40 -100%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Apr 30 $46 $0 -1%
Spread: Brisbane Roar FC (-2.5) Apr 03 $204 +$7 +4%
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? Apr 02 $200 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? BUY No 93¢ $466 3d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $470 4d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $470 4d
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 96¢ $490 6d
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $488 6d
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $489 6d
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Fukushima United FC: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $481 15d
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $21 15d
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $464 15d
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $491 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 21d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 23d
Spread: Al Okhdood SC (-1.5) BUY Al Okhdood SC 5¢ $9 47d
Spread: Al Okhdood SC (-1.5) BUY Al Okhdood SC 4¢ $9 47d
Spread: Al Okhdood SC (-1.5) BUY Al Okhdood SC 4¢ $8 47d
Spread: Al Okhdood SC (-1.5) BUY Al Okhdood SC 4¢ $4 47d
Spread: Al Okhdood SC (-1.5) BUY Al Okhdood SC 3¢ $9 47d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $23 47d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $22 47d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $12 47d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $13 47d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 47d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 48d
Spread: Brisbane Roar FC (-2.5) BUY Sydney FC 97¢ $204 75d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $100 75d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $100 75d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $200 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records