Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:18:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
CA 0xca5a…a074 crypto 120 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$101 (+13%) realized +$100 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%40W / 75L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day45.9pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days+$80
14 days+$75
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$81
other 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 +31.9% +19.4% 35% 35% +0.9%
≤30d 115 +27.7% +15.6% 35% 35% -0.4%
≤90d 115 +27.7% +15.6% 35% 35% -0.4%
all 115 +27.7% +15.6% 35% 35% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.6% 35% -0.4%
10% ← realistic here +4.5% 34% -9.9%
15% -5.6% 33% -18.6%
20% -14.9% 31% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$5 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$100
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses40 / 75
Open positions5
Markets (closed)115 / 120
History coverage8d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day45.9
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $11 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Down 35¢ 42¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+21%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Down 0¢ 40¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $35 +$64 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$14 +264%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$9 +289%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$10 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$6 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $79 +$30 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $32 +$10 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$13 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$12 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$2 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$13 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 0m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 9m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 9m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.05 · official $18.25 · 384 history records