Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:11:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CA
0xca58…efd7
sports · 317 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$21 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$26 · open −$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Net worth$45
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses125 / 148
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions44
Markets (closed)273 / 317
History coverage74d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 44 History 273 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$26
14 days+$25
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes 46¢ 62¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+34%)
Rippling IPO before 2027? Yes 15¢ 19¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+29%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 49¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes $3 $1 −$2 (-64%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Germany 50¢ 54¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? No 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Germany 70¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Ciryl Gane 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? No 84¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Under 27¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? No 74¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Over 84¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Under 82¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? No 73¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Sweden leading at halftime? No 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? No 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 53¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Knicks 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? No 68¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $1 $0 +21%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +124%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2 +$24 +1204%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 +$2 +172%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +114%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +134%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $1 $0 +42%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +46%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Tucuman: Segundo Goity Zapico vs Federico Coria Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $2 $0 +2%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $1 +$1 +134%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $1 +$1 +76%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $1 +$1 +65%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $1 +$1 +146%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $1 +$1 +93%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $1 +$1 +60%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Will FathUnionSport win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k? May 22 $1 +$1 +64%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $1 +$1 +133%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $1 +$2 +197%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $1 $0 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 54% +$49
world 29% −$21
other 11% −$2
politics 3% −$2
crypto 1% −$3
culture 1% −$1
weather 0% −$1
finance 0% −$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Kamil Majchrzak 82¢ $1 1h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh $1 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 7h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 7h
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY No 64¢ $1 7h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $1 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 10¢ $1 7h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 36¢ $1 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 7h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $1 8h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $1 8h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $1 8h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 70¢ $1 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY No 84¢ $1 8h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $1 8h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $1 8h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 8h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $1 8h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 53¢ $1 8h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 19¢ $1 8h
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 9h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $1 9h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $1 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 9h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $1 9h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 12h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 70¢ $1 12h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 44¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +37.6% +24.5% 56% 53% +49.4%
≤30d 47 +22.6% +10.9% 51% 49% +31.4%
≤90d 273 +8.0% -2.3% 46% 42% -6.1%
all 273 +8.0% -2.3% 46% 42% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 42% -6.1%
10% -11.6% 38% -15.0%
15% -20.2% 35% -23.3%
20% -28.0% 32% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.56 · official $44.56 (match) · 715 history records